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Sunday Night, November 29, 2015, 2230ET
Market Bias Review, Issue #120
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2090.11 up 0.94 (up +0.05%) for the week ending on Friday, November 27th, 2015, which closed near its +0.5 sigma.
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2134.72 (reached on Wednesday, May 20th, 2015)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2130.82 (reached on Thursday, May 21st, 2015)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2123 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2162
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2080 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2033
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2038 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 1905
50-Day MA SPX =2029 or +3% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3% )
200-Day MA SPX = 2065 or +1.2% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
VIX = 20.08 which closed Friday above its +3 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO. VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma))
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +75.8 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 56.24 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 8/7/15 CLOSE (first time in 32 months)
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 10/20/15 CLOSE
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 27 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 7 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = near its +0.5 Sigma
HA_Momo = +1.6 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
HA_SP2 = 65.0(Buy signal <= 20, Sell Signal >= 80)
3-mo. VX Futures Spread (long NOV short FEB) = -1.78 (-3 to -2.5 SELL signal, 0 BUY Signal)
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) = 137.7 (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)
Our current SPX Bias with Timer Digest: LONG SPX as of Tuesday, October 20th, 2015 Close at 2030.77
Our previous Bias: SHORT SPX (since Tuesday, October 6th, 2015 Close at 1979.92)
This WEEK’s Bias = Cautiously, LONG SPX Complex via Long Call Spreads.
Profit Target = 2105-2125
Money Management Stop = 2080
BOTTOM LINE: We are NOT short-term overbought yet. Tuesday (first of the new month) will be crucial ahead of NOV NFP on Friday at 0830ET. You may see an update from us, via email or on Twitter (from my co-pilot, @Capt_Tiko), should we hit overbought levels too fast.
NOTE: All LEVELS mentioned here have been, are, and will be, based on the S&P-500 SPX Cash Index, and not the ES Futures. Tomorrow after the first hour is complete, we will post here a companion chart showing critical short-term WEEKLY levels to watch for possible “retest failures.”
Fari Hamzei
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Proactive Market Timing
