Sunday, February 14, 2016 2230ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #131
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 1864.78 down -15.72 (down -0.84%) for the week ending on Friday, February 5th, 2016, which closed above its -1 sigma.
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2134.72 (reached on Wednesday, May 20th, 2015)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2130.82 (reached on Thursday, May 21st, 2015)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 1943 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2159
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 1885 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2003
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 1827 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 1847
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -14 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 39.6 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
Worth noting is that NAZZ is leading NYSE here.
Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7965 or -11.5% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1170 or -17.0% above RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) is STILL in a channel breakout.
Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) sold off most of last week with exception of Friday. RISK is still OFF, ioho.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
50-Day MA SPX =1967 or -5.2% above SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3% )
200-Day MA SPX = 2034 or -8.3% above SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
All of our Eight DeTrenders are still negative but now they are improving.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 1/29/16 CLOSE
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Monday 2/8/16 CLOSE
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 9 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 96 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = almost at its zero Sigma
HA_Momo = +1.81 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Vol of the Vols Chart
VIX = 25.4 which is just above its zero sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO. VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).
As stated here in the last 2 weeks, this shockwave is over till the next shoe drops.
5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts
Both 5-day TRIN (for NYSE) and 5-day TRINQ (for NASDAQ) heading to a SELL signal here. This chart is worth watching in the coming week or two.
Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart
We closed the week at 25% for this scoring indicator. Next, we need to see it cross its 50bar which is at 34% now (red line).
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) = 118 and about its -1 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)
All Quiet on the MidWestern Front? It should not be, given the recent price action.
The tail risk is subsiding to pre-August2015 levels.
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG MAR16 SHORT JUN16), closed Friday at +0.74. That says Thursday may have the s/t low (local minima) for now.
HA_SP2 = 47.75 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
At ~48, this prop indicator went to neutral in one day (last Friday).
My co-pilot, @Capt_Tiko, is still tracking the 2008 price action vs 2016. He continues to tell us that 2016 will be a lot like 2008, at least for the first half. We wish we had his IQ. Must be his Albacore Tuna + Foumanat Tea Diet.
SPX 2008 Analog for SPX 2016
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
Treasury Complex Yields rose sharply on Thursday and Friday.