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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, February 22, 2016, 1050ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #132

Sunday, February 21, 2016, 2030ET
Market Bias, Issue #132

Our current SPX Bias with Timer Digest: LONG SPX as of Friday, February 12, 2016 Close at 1864.78
Our previous Bias: SHORT SPX as of Wednesday, February 10, 2016 Close at 1851.86

This WEEK’s Bias = Cautiously LONG SPX or SPY via Call Spreads

Profit Target = 1955 to 1975
Money Management Stop = 1900

BOTTOM LINE: Watch your bet size & 50-day MA (1955ish). That level is the key resistance that we have to overcome so this move up can reach out for 2000 in the next two weeks.

Note: Once one of the targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), the trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, February 20, 2016 1400ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #132

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 1917.78 up +53.00 (up +2.84%) for the week ending on Friday, February 19th, 2016, which closed near its +1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2134.72 (reached on Wednesday, May 20th, 2015)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2130.82 (reached on Thursday, May 21st, 2015)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 1954 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2160
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 1893 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2002
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 1833 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 1843

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +154 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 47.94 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Friday OX price action gave us a hammer. That's constructive for Da Bulls.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7937 or -8.2% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1166 or -13.4% above RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) retested its zero sigma and climbing in the +1 to +2 sigma channel. Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) is about to have a channel breakout. RISK is still OFF, ioho.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX =1954 or -1.9% above SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3% )
200-Day MA SPX = 2030 or -5.6% above SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Seven of our Eight DeTrenders are negative but all have improved since Jan lows.

HA_SP1_momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 1/29/16 CLOSE
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Thursday 2/18/16 CLOSE
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 12 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 4 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = almost at its +1.5 Sigma
HA_Momo = +6.3 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX = 20.5 which is just below its -1 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO. VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

As stated here in the last 3 weeks, this shockwave is over till the next shoe drops.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both 5-day TRIN (for NYSE) and 5-day TRINQ (for NASDAQ) Indicators are in SELL signal mode here.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

We closed the week at 31% for this scoring indicator, and still struggling to get over its 50-day MA, which is at 33% now (red line). Notice the Divergence with SPX.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) = 123 and about its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)

All Quiet on the MidWestern Front? And, is Smart Money giving the all clear signal for a rise to 200-day MA (2020 to 2030 zone)? who knows, but we must pay attention to SKEW this week.

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG MAR16 SHORT JUN16), closed Friday at -0.50. This says low is behind us for now.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 65.8 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

At ~66, this prop indicator is near overbought.

SPX 2008 Analog for SPX 2016

SPX 2016 tracking the SPX 2008 price action so far, says @Capt_Tiko, who is a lot smarter that we are. Oh well, we may have to start having whatever he is having: Alboacroe Tuna + Foumanat Tea.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

Treasury Complex Yields rose sharply on Thursday and Friday.

Fari Hamzei

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