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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, May 23, 2016, 1045ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #143

Sunday Night, May 22, 2016, 2030ET
Market Bias, Issue #143

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Monday April 18 Close at 2094.34
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX since Friday April 8 Close at 2047.60



This WEEK’s Trade = LONG via SPX or SPY CallSpreads

SPX Profit Target = 2085-2100
SPX Money Management Stop = 2030

BOTTOM LINE: We should see a rebound here into Memorial Day (seasonality is in our favor).


Note: Once one of our SPX targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, May 21, 2016 2030ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #143


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2052.32 up +5.39 (up +0.26%) for the week ending on Friday, May 20th, 2016, which closed just below its 50-bar MA & zero sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2134.72 (reached on Wednesday, May 20th, 2015)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2130.82 (reached on Thursday, May 21st, 2015)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2097 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2145
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2065 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 1994
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2032 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 1844

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -91 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 48.4 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

With crushed vols, SPX is the darling of the ROMANs (Sausage Makers) for all but 1 to 2 hrs of each trading day. If you look at our archives, you will notice the WEEKLY SPX Sigma Levels have hardly changed in the last 7 weeks!!



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7742 or 0.9% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1127 or 0.4% above RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) reversed and rose a tad but still below its 200 day MA.
Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) is about to cross both its 50 & 200 bar MAs.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2054 or -0.4% above SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2012 or +1.7% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

This week, SIX of our Eight DeTrenders are NEGTIVE now, but most DTs should go up further once SPX heads up to challange 2100.



HA_SP1_momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/15/16 CLOSE
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Wednesday 5/18/16 CLOSE
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 20 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 8 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = at about its 0 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2(reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX = 15.2 is now at +1 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO. VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Our beloved Fear Index is CRUSHED here (look how parallel its sigma channels are)!!!



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both 5-day TRINs are nearing SELL signals. That's very interesting......



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

As discussed here last week, this scoring indicator found support this week [at 64%] and then bounced to 68%. What is next? We should look for 75% to 78%, ioho.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) = 125.6 and still around its 0 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)

All Quiet on the Mid-Western Front? Yes......So, All of Our Problems Are Solved? The Donald thinks he can solve them, in 100 days or less, once he is in the White House. LOL.



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG JUN16 & SHORT SEP16) closed at -3.5 on Friday. VX Futs are fast approaching a local minima.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 48.2 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

At ~48, this prop indicator is neutral zone but heading up, for now after putting in a nice bullish divergence.



SPX 2012 Analog for SPX 2016

Based on this Analog, it looks to us that we may have already seen the reversal in early-May. Here is the challange: we have a few analogs and moves are, so far too small, percentage wise. To pick which one BEST represents the Market this year, it is a very tough call right now.


US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

This past week, US Treasury Yield Curve was on a long march and jumped by, as much as, one full SPR level.

Fari Hamzei




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