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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, July 13, 2016, 1045ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #150

Wednesday, July 13, 2016, 0915ET
Market Bias, Issue #150

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Tuesday July 12 Close 2152.14
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Friday July 8 Close 2129.90



This WEEK’s Trade = SHORT the Market using SPX or SPY Put Spreads

SPX First Profit Target = 2080
SPX Second Profit Target = 2050
SPX Money Management Stop = 2165-2170

BOTTOM LINE: We are very overbought here and we expect a pullback but we will only risk about 1% (STOP LOSS). Per @Capt_Tiko, "Keep your bet size in check...."


Note: Once one of our SPX targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, July 12, 2016, 1511ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Since most of our prop [short-term] market timing indicators are in extremely OverBought condition as of this writing, we are getting SHORT SPX as of the Close today…………

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, July 10, 2016, 2230ET
Market Bias, Issue #150

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is FLAT SPX as of Friday July 8 Close 2129.90
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Tuesday July 5 Close 2088.55



This WEEK’s Trade = STAYING FLAT for NOW

SPX First Profit Target = N/A
SPX Second Profit Target = N/A
SPX Money Management Stop = N/A

BOTTOM LINE: If SPX holds its +1 sigma (~2108 on closing basis), most likely we will get long and then next big hurdle would be the retest of current ATH at 2131. Alternatively, if we get a close below 2105, we will get short again. But remember sigma levels are dynamic so the level will change slightly each day.


Note: Once one of our SPX targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, July 10, 2016 1330ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #150


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2129.90 up +26.95 (up +1.28%) for the week ending on Friday, July 8th, 2016, which closed near its +2 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2134.72 (reached on Wednesday, May 20, 2015)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2130.82 (reached on Thursday, May 21, 2015)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2137 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2140
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2080 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2060
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2024 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 1980

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +155 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 59 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

SPX is gunning for its Intraday & Closing ATHs put in some 14 months ago.......



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7673 or 0.1% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1113 or 5.7% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) chart pattern is looking a lot better since we discussed here last. It closed at its +1 sigma on Friday.
Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) rallied sharply in the last 2 weeks. RISK-ON is baaaaaaak.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2077 or 2.5% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2025 or 5.1% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

This week ALL of our Eight DeTrenders are POSITIVE. DeTrenders for TRAN & RUT continue to get our attention.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/15/16 CLOSE
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday 7/5/16 CLOSE
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 65 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 3 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = at its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +8.2 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Worth noting: our coveted HA_Momo is getting near its overbought territory.



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX = 13.2 is now nearing -2 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

As discussed here two weeks ago, VIX pulled back and it was much faster than most expected, including but not limited to, yours truly & @Capt_Tiko!!



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

SELL SIGNALs on BOTH charts here........



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator is back up to 71% now. Note the bearish divergences (since April & May Highs).... GOT TUNA?



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) = rose to 153 (over its design limit of 150) and touched its +3 sigma on June 28th (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)

Last Friday, it closed at 127 after falling like lead in water to 123 in 5 sessions !!
All Quiet on the Mid-Western Front? Smart Money thinks so. This PDI thinks otherwise, but then again, what do we know!! In these cases, we shall yield to @Capt_Tiko and his great wisdom (He luvs #Rumi)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Notice starting this week, we shall be using the enhanced chart ( VX spread vs ES) Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG JUL16 & SHORT OCT16) closed at -4.33 on Friday. As you can tell, this indicator says we are extremely overbought.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 72 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator also says we are very near Overbought territory.



SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016

Simply Speechless

We never liked a market that does not follow our instructions, reminds us of #Bibi.
LOL



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

Relatively quiet week in the US Treasury Complex post Brexit. (Flight to Quality continues unabated.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, July 9, 2016, 1158ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Since Friday’s SPX price action violated our 1% Loss Management Target (at ~2110) by a wide margin, and since our prop timing indicators are showing higher overbought readings, we are stepping aside for a day or two while we wait for another opportunity to short this market from higher prices.

Fari Hamzei




Customer Care:





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