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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, July 18, 2016, 1130ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #151

Monday, July 18, 2016, 0850ET
Market Bias, Issue #151

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Tuesday July 12 Close 2152.14
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Friday July 8 Close 2129.90



This WEEK’s Trade = SHORT the Market using SPX or SPY Put Spreads

SPX First Profit Target = 2140
SPX Second Profit Target = 2100
SPX Money Management Stop = 2180

BOTTOM LINE: We continue to be very overbought. While we expect a pullback, fighting the Fed is by no means easy.
We will risk about 1% (STOP LOSS) & we shall keep our bet size tiny, or Capt_Tiko would yell at us: "No More Tuna for You, Come Back Next Year..." ROFLOL


Note: Once one of our SPX targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, July 18, 2016, 0830ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #151


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2161.74 up +31.84 (up +1.5%) for the week ending on Friday, July 15th, 2016, which closed near its +1.5 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2169.05 (reached on Friday, July 15, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2163.75 (reached on Thursday, July 14, 2016)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2184 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2145
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2099 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2071
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2014 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 1997

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +113 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 61 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

SPX finally printed new All-Time-Highs.... so all is well in the Mid-Western Front? If you believe that, please contact us, we have a bridge for sale!!



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7676 or 4% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1115 or 8% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) chart pattern is healthy again. It closed at very near +2 sigma on Friday.
Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) rallied first two days of the week and then went flat. RISK-ON is back.
A quick note from @Capt_Tiko: What is key to watch here is their CI Diffs.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2086 or 3.6% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2031 or 6.4% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Again, this week ALL of our Eight DeTrenders are POSITIVE. DeTrenders for TRAN & RUT continue to get our attention.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/15/16 CLOSE
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday 7/5/16 CLOSE
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 78 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = at its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +5.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX = 12.85 is now at its -1 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX had a relatively quiet week. For OVX (vol index for crude), that was a different story.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

BOTH charts continue to give SELL SIGNALs here........



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator is back up to 77% now. A close above here and all bearish divergences will be reset.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) = rose to 130 after sinking to 123 (its -1 sigma on July 6th right before June NFP) (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)

All Quiet on the Mid-Western Front? Smart Money thinks so.




3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG JUL16 & SHORT OCT16) closed at -4.9 on Friday. As you can tell, this indicator says we are extremely overbought.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 80 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator also says we are extremely Overbought territory.



SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016

Simply Speechless

We may just trash this analog. We never liked a market that did not listen....LOL.


US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

For the first time in so many weeks, we saw a healthy move in the US Treasury Complex.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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