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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, August 2, 2016, 2130ET
Updated Chart of our WEEKLY & DAILY Timing Models (HA SP1_momo)


HA_SP1_Momo Chart

Our DAILY TIMING MODEL went to a SELL after the Cash Close today & HA MoMo is at -6.8 now.

Monday, August 1, 2016, 2345ET
Market Bias, Issue #153

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Monday August 1 Close 2170.84
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Friday July 22 Close 2152.14



This WEEK’s Trade = SHORT the Market using SPX or SPY Put Spreads

SPX First Profit Target = 2125
SPX Second Profit Target = 2100
SPX Money Management Stop = 2190

BOTTOM LINE: We continue to be very overbought. We shall risk no more than 1% (STOP LOSS) & we shall keep our bet size in check.


Note: Once one of our SPX targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, August 1, 2016, 2332ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Today we saw a number of minor divergences between price & our momentum indicators.
We will take a small bet on the SHORT side but risking no more than 1%.
SPX Closed at 2170.84 today.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, July 31, 2016, 2222ET
Market Bias, Issue #153

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is FLAT SPX as of Friday July 22 Close 2175.03
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Tuesday July 12 Close 2152.14



This WEEK’s Trade = FLAT FOR NOW

SPX First Profit Target = N/A
SPX Second Profit Target = N/A
SPX Money Management Stop = N/A

BOTTOM LINE: @Capt_Tiko says have more [iced] tea & enjoy your summer vacation..... nothing is going on!!


Note: Once one of our SPX targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, July 30, 2016, 2115ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #153


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) & NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2173.60 down -1.43 (down -0.06%) for the week ending on Friday, July 29th, 2016, which closed at its +1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2177.09 (reached on Friday, July 29, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2175.03 (reached on Friday, July 22, 2016)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2205 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2172
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2149 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2087
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2092 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2002

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -9 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)

NYSE Breadth Thrust = 54 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Romans were everywhere this week. Just look at the range.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7670 or 2.3% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1119 or 8.9% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) eased off more during the last week and closed at its zero sigma.
Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) was flat-lined last week at its +1 sigma.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2108 or 3.1% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2041 or 6.5% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Again, this week ALL of our Eight DeTrenders are POSITIVE.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/15/16 CLOSE
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday 7/5/16 CLOSE
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 54 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = just below its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX = 11.87 is at its -1 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

All Vol indices had a fairly quiet week. ROMANs occupied every foxhole.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

BOTH charts are now in neutral reading zones........



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator never made it past 80% and it is now at 77.4% and thus settign up another bearish divegence (work in progress for now).



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) still flat-lined near 128 (its -1 sigma on July 6th right before June NFP) (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)

All Quiet on the Mid-Western Front? Smart Money contiues to think so.




3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG AUG16 & SHORT NOV16) closed at -4.4 on Friday. This is most extreme reading we have seen in several years of watching this vol spread.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 68 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator says we are gong up to near OverBought territory again.



SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016

Is this the Clinton or the Trump Rally?

All we know is that the divergences in analog charts never end well.........


US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

This past week, the US Treasury Complex saw three days of rally in bonds prices and drop in rates.

Fari Hamzei




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