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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, August 18, 2016, 1610ET
Updated Analog Chart


SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016

Monday, August 15, 2016, 0430ET
Market Bias, Issue #154

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Monday August 1 Close 2170.84
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Friday July 22 Close 2175.03



This WEEK’s Trade = NO TRADE recommended for this week

SPX First Profit Target = N/A
SPX Second Profit Target = N/A
SPX Money Management Stop = N/A

BOTTOM LINE: Summer doldrums are upon us. Volume is very thin and all the big boys are out at the Hamptons, but we shall continue to look for a breakout or a breakdown in SPX.


Note: Once one of our SPX targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, August 14, 2016, 2330ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #154


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2184.05 up +1.18 (up +0.05%) for the week ending on Friday, August 12th, 2016, which closed near its +1.5 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2188.45 (reached on Thursday, August 11, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2185.75 (reached on Thursday, August 11, 2016)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2187 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2198
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2172 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2101
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2156 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2005

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -43 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 52 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

SPX printed more All-Time-Highs.... so all is well in the Mid-Western Front? Reminds us of Pink Floyd's song: [We're all] Comfortably Numb, from their "The Wall" album, published in 1979.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7651 or 2% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1122 or 9.5% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) chart pattern is in a divergence with SPX, acting as a warning, at least for now.
Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) has been pretty much flat, much like SPX. RISK-ON is back but it's very mild right now.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2127 or 2.7% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2048 or 6.6% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

This week ALL of our Eight DeTrenders continue to stay POSITIVE. DeTrenders for TRAN & RUT continue to get our constant attention.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/15/16 CLOSE at 2081
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday 8/9/16 CLOSE at 2181
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 35 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 2 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = below its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2.1 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX = 11.55 is above its -1 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX had another quiet week. OVX (vol index for crude) got crushed.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both charts are now near NEUTRAL here........



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator is almost 80% now. All of its previous bearish divergences are history now.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) rose to 132 near its +1 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)

All Quiet on the Mid-Western Front? Smart Money still thinks so.




3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG SEPT16 & SHORT DEC16) closed at -3.02 on Friday. As you can tell, this indicator says continues to signal that we are extremely overbought.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 64 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator is in a big divergence with SPX closing a point below its all time high.



SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016

[If this chart is a good analog] then let's see if a week from now, it will get exciting to trade SPX.


US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

US Treasury Complex is very quiet, trading near its monthly pivots.

Fari Hamzei




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