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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, August 24, 2016, 2100ET
Market Bias, Issue #155 Update A

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Monday August 1 Close 2170.84
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Friday July 22 Close 2175.03



This WEEK’s Trade = LONG Put Spread on SPX or SPY for next 2 days

SPX First Profit Target = 2155
SPX Second Profit Target = 2140
SPX Money Management Stop = 2185

BOTTOM LINE: Keep in mind Auntie Janet & Co. will meet with central bankers, policy wonks, economists & academics at Kansas City Fed's Annual Economic Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole, WY, this weekend. Be nimble, specially on Friday.


Note: Once one of our SPX targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, August 22, 2016, 0930ET
Market Bias, Issue #155

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Monday August 1 Close 2170.84
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Friday July 22 Close 2175.03



This WEEK’s Trade = NO TRADE recommended for this week

SPX First Profit Target = N/A
SPX Second Profit Target = N/A
SPX Money Management Stop = N/A

BOTTOM LINE: Most likely we will give you a trade later on this week.


Note: Once one of our SPX targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, August 20, 2016, 1330ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #155


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2183.87 down -0.18 (down -0.0082%) for the week ending on Friday, August 19th, 2016, which closed near its +1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2193.81 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2190.15 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2194 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2209
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2176 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2107
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2158 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2005

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -64 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 51.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

On Monday SPX made new All-Time-Highs.... so all is well in the Mid-Western Front? 80% of US Equities Benchmark (SPX) thinks so. Do you?



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7644 or 3.7% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1124 or 10% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) chart pattern is still in a divergence with SPX but at less pronounced.
Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) contiued to rise, albeit, only slightly at the margin. RISK-ON trade is back.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2134 or 2.3% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2050 or 6.5% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

This week ALL of our Eight DeTrenders continue to stay POSITIVE. DeTrenders for TRAN & RUT continue to get our constant attention.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/15/16 CLOSE at 2081
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday 8/9/16 CLOSE at 2181
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 34 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = just above its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -1.74 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX = 11.34 is at its -1 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX had another quiet week. OVX (vol index for crude) continues to got crushed.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both charts are just a tad over SELL signal zones (0.80)........



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator is at 81.6% now. All of its previous bearish divergences are history now.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) rose to 136.6 near its +1.5 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)

All Quiet on the Mid-Western Front? Smart Money is smelling trouble ahead (contested US General Election?)




3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG SEPT16 & SHORT DEC16) closed at -3.48 on Friday. As you can tell, this indicator continues to signal that we are extremely overbought.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 54 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator continues to be in a big divergence with SPX.



SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016

[If this chart is a good analog] then are we ready to Rock 'N' Roll [very soon]?
My XO, @Capt_Tiko, is.....Got Tuna?


US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

US Treasury Complex was very quiet last week and rose only slightly across the Yield Curve.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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