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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart


SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016

For several issues now, we have talked about the relevance of Labor Day [same order 2000 Aug NFP was released] in this Analog to 2016 trading pattern. Next few days are the most critical to watch.

Monday, August 29, 2016, 1030ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #156

Monday, August 29, 2016, 0815ET
Market Bias, Issue #156

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Monday August 1 Close 2170.84
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Friday July 22 Close 2175.03



This WEEK’s Trade = SHORT the Market using SPX or SPY Put Spreads

SPX First Profit Target = 2150
SPX Second Profit Target = 2140
SPX Money Management Stop = 2180

BOTTOM LINE: Most big players are still at the Hamptons hanging out with HRC....so our targets this week are on the tighter side. Next week we shall expand them a tad more.


Note: Once one of our SPX targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, August 29, 2016, 0800ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #156


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2169.04 down -14.83 (down -0.68%) for the week ending on Friday, August 26th, 2016, which closed near its -1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2193.81 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2190.15 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2195 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2214
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2178 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2113
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2160 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2011

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -99 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 49.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Very dull week with exception of Wednesday and Friday (courtesy of Auntie Janet at Jackson Hole)



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7637 or 2.5% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1125 or 10% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) spent the whole week in a very gradual retreat.
Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) had a mixed week and went nowhere fast.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2144 or 1.2% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2052 or 5.7% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

This week ALL of our Eight DeTrenders continue to stay POSITIVE. DeTrenders for TRAN & RUT continue to get our constant attention.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/15/16 CLOSE at 2081
DAILY Timing Model = on a SHORT Signal since Monday 8/22/16 CLOSE at 2181
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 30 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 1 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = just above its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = -3.44 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX = 14.1 is at its +2 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX finally moved up. This shockwave is still in progress.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both charts are NEUTRAL here........



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator is at 78.8% following a very fast drop from 82% aread.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) rose to 132 near its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)

All Quiet on the Mid-Western Front? Smart Money continues to smell trouble ahead (contested US General Election?)




3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG SEPT16 & SHORT DEC16) closed at -3.26 on Friday. As you can tell, this indicator continues to signal that we are still overbought.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 28 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator says we are about to enter the oversold zone.



SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016

This Market is getting ready to Rock....
My XO, @Capt_Tiko, is ready too.....Got Tuna?


US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The jump in five-year note's (and to some degree the 10-yr note) YTM is worth watching this week.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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