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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, September 6, 2016, 1035ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #157

Tuesday, September 6, 2016, 0045ET
Market Bias, Issue #157

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Monday August 1 Close 2170.84
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Friday July 22 Close 2175.03



This WEEK’s Trade = SHORT the Market by getting LONG SPX or SPY Put Spreads

SPX Money Management Stop = 2190
SPX First Profit Target = 2170
SPX Second Profit Target = 2160

BOTTOM LINE: The vols are way too tight right now and something shall give sooner or later. For now, we have to keep our stops very tight and our bet size very small.


Note: Once one of our SPX targets is hit (Profit or Money Management), our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, September 5, 2016, 2345ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #157


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2179.98 up +10.94 (up +0.50%) for the week ending on Friday, September 2nd, 2016, which closed very near its zero sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2193.81 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2190.15 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2191 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2222
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2180 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2118
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2168 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2014

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -4 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 53 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Another uber dull week with exception of Friday (courtesy of BLS of Dept of Labor)



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7632 or 4.1% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1127 or 11% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) again went nowhere fast.
Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) started the week sliding down but then came Aug NFP and now it's near a breakout



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2153 or 1.2% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2055 or 6.1% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

This week ALL of our Eight DeTrenders continue to stay POSITIVE. DeTrenders for TRAN & RUT continue to get our constant attention.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/15/16 CLOSE at 2081
DAILY Timing Model = on a SHORT Signal since Monday 8/22/16 CLOSE at 2181
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 42 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 2 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = just above its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -0.46(reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Worth noting: Our coveted CI Indicator for WEEKLY SPX is about to get a down cross (CI Diff will go RED).



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX = 12 is at its +2 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

The future of current shockwave is very dubious.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both charts are still NEUTRAL here........



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator is tad above 80% and near its zero sigma (20 day MA). No signal here either.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) eased to 128 near its -2 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)

All Quiet on the Mid-Western Front? Smart Money is starting to discount [somewhat] near term trouble ahead (contested US General Election?)




3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG SEPT16 & SHORT DEC16) closed at -4.14 on Friday. This spread continues to signal that we are very overbought.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 58 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator is NEUTRAL right now.



SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016

This Market is NOT ready to Rock and My XO, @Capt_Tiko, is ready bored.


US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The jump in YTM for the 5-year T-Notes (and to some degree the 10-yr T-Note) is worth watching this week.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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