Monday, September 5, 2016, 2345ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #157
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2179.98 up +10.94 (up +0.50%) for the week ending on Friday, September 2nd, 2016, which closed very near its zero sigma.
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2193.81 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2190.15 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2191 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2222
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2180 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2118
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2168 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2014
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -4 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 53 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
Another uber dull week with exception of Friday (courtesy of BLS of Dept of Labor)
Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7632 or 4.1% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1127 or 11% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) again went nowhere fast.
Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) started the week sliding down but then came Aug NFP and now it's near a breakout
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
50-Day MA SPX = 2153 or 1.2% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2055 or 6.1% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
This week ALL of our Eight DeTrenders continue to stay POSITIVE. DeTrenders for TRAN & RUT continue to get our constant attention.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/15/16 CLOSE at 2081
DAILY Timing Model = on a SHORT Signal since Monday 8/22/16 CLOSE at 2181
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 42 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 2 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = just above its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -0.46(reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Worth noting: Our coveted CI Indicator for WEEKLY SPX is about to get a down cross (CI Diff will go RED).
Vol of the Vols Chart
VIX = 12 is at its +2 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).
The future of current shockwave is very dubious.
5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts
Both charts are still NEUTRAL here........
Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart
This scoring indicator is tad above 80% and near its zero sigma (20 day MA). No signal here either.
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) eased to 128 near its -2 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)
All Quiet on the Mid-Western Front? Smart Money is starting to discount [somewhat] near term trouble ahead (contested US General Election?)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG SEPT16 & SHORT DEC16) closed at -4.14 on Friday. This spread continues to signal that we are very overbought.
HA_SP2 = 58 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
This indicator is NEUTRAL right now.
This Market is NOT ready to Rock and My XO, @Capt_Tiko, is ready bored.
SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
The jump in YTM for the 5-year T-Notes (and to some degree the 10-yr T-Note) is worth watching this week.