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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Friday, October 28, 2016, 2026ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Markets are rolling over faster than we had expected, partially due to poor Earnings News from the Techs this week, and partially due to the FBI’s decision to reopen the investigation into Billary45 Emails which was announced late this afternoon.

Therefore,
We are going SHORT SPX as of the Close at 2126.41

Our downside targets are 2080 and then 2030.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, October 24, 2016, 1030ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #164

Sunday, October 23, 2016, 2000ET
Market Bias for Issue #164

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday October 21 Close 2141.16
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Thursday September 29 Close 2151.13



This is our Trade for this week = LONG SPX or SPY CALL Spreads

SPX Secondary Profit Target = 2175
SPX Primary Profit Target = 2160
SPX Money Management Stop = 2125

BOTTOM LINE: CAT, AAPL, BA, TSLA, AMZN, BIDU & GOOGL are on deck this week. AND, We still expect a bounce here before more selling pressure resumes. Keep your bet size in check.


Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders should close 50% to 75% of your position in order to lock profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with the BreakEven STOP in order to make the trade a zero risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management Target is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, October 23, 2016, 1943ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

SPX spent two days in the last seven trading days retesting our hypothesis (a breakdown to the 2110-2100 levels) but we never got past 2114 and since then it has been putting in higher lows.

Therefore,
We are reversing our bias to LONG SPX for this week……. and Last SPX Close is 2141.16 (locking in about 10 handles for now).

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, October 23, 2016, 1845ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #164


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2141.16 up +8.18 (up +0.38%) for the week ending on Friday, October 21st, 2016, which closed just above its -1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2193.81 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2190.15 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2174 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2223
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2149 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2144
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2124 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2065

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -9 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 49.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

This week, we have a number of big NYSE & NASDAQ names (AAPL, CAT, BA, TSLA, AMZN, BIDU & GOOGL) reporting their Q3 Earnings and any of them could be a market mover.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7674 or 4.6% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1141 or 6.7% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) also had a lackluster week.

Russell 2000 Small Caps (proxy for RISK ON/OFF) had an uneventful week as well. But, we can always blame the Romans for that. LOL.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2160 or 0.9 above SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2072 or 3.3% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Currently, only 2 of our 8 De Trenders are negative. The De Trenders for DJ TRAN & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 4/15/16 CLOSE at 2081
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 10/07/16 CLOSE at 2153
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 10 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 7 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = at its -1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2.56 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently testing its -1 sigma level at 13.34 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Our newest shock wave has lost its momentum in quick succession.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are again in NEUTRAL zone.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator sank to 64% on Friday. Still, my XO (stands for eXecutive Officer, aka, second in command),@Capt_Tiko, is still looking for 55% to 60% zone.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) settled at 123 which is about its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150)

All is getting Quieter on the Mid-Western Front. Has Billary45 already been coronated?



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG NOV16 & SHORT FEB17) dropped further to -2.83, volatility market signaling potential for further upside in price action.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 49.5 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator is in its neutral zone.



SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016

Will the other shoe drop? Fed is acting as insurer of last resort and selling AuntieJanet Puts as a discount (yes, Maury likes that. Actually to be correct, we must state Maury likes anything on a discount). LOL.


US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The YTMs on Treasury Complex finally pulled back last week but only at the margin.

Fari Hamzei




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