Investment Advice via real time put call ratio real time investment advice
Contact Us Home Products News About Members
Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, November 22, 2016, 2100ET
UPDATED Market Bias for Issue #168

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday Nov 11 Close at 2164.45
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Tuesday Nov 7 Close at 2139.53



This is our Trade for this week = LONG SPX or SPY CALL Spreads

SPX Secondary Profit Target = 2225
SPX Primary Profit Target = 2195 <<< MET
SPX Money Management Stop = 2190

BOTTOM LINE: Due to surprisingly high strength observed in the S&P-500, DJ TRAN & RUT Indices, we are raising our SECONDARY PROFIT TRAGET for this week from 2210 to 2225. Note: Your Money Management Stop should be raised to 2190 for the balance of this week.


Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders should close 50% to 75% of their position in order to lock in the profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management Target is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Happy Thanksgiving to You & Yours.....

Fari Hamzei

Monday, November 21, 2016, 1050ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #168

Sunday, November 20, 2016, 1900ET
Market Bias for Issue #168

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday Nov 11 Close at 2164.45
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Tuesday Nov 7 Close at 2139.53



This is our Trade for this week = LONG SPX or SPY CALL Spreads

SPX Secondary Profit Target = 2210
SPX Primary Profit Target = 2195
SPX Money Management Stop = 2170

BOTTOM LINE: Thanksgiving Week has a slow-grind UP Bias seasonality. Keep your bet size in check. We will re-calibrate next Sunday.


Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders should close 50% to 75% of their position in order to lock in the profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management Target is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, November 19, 2016, 1630ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #168


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2181.90 up +17.45 (up +0.81%) for the week ending Friday, November 18th, 2016, which closed again at about its +1.5 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2193.81 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2190.15 (reached on Monday, August 15, 2016)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2203 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2207
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2143 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2156
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2083 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2105

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +64 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 57.6 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Ceteris paribus, we plan to stay long SPX into next FOMC Meeting (Dec 13-14).



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7825 or 13.2% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1163 or 13.1% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had another good week. Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had another tremendous week and rose by 2.6 percent. RISK is definitely ON.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2146 or 1.7 below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2096 or 4.1% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Only 1 of our 8 De Trenders are negative. The De Trenders for DJ TRAN & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 11/11/16 CLOSE at 2164
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Thursday 11/10/16 CLOSE at 2167
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 82 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 4 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = above its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +3.48 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently testing its -1 sigma level at 12.85 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

The current shock wave is over. VIX usually tends to reach exhaustion level once it captures its +4 sigma level.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is now in a NEUTRAL zone while its NASDAQ brethren gave a SELL signal.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator continued to rally and touched 67%. Every night this past week, my XO, @Capt_Tiko, checked this indicator after his evening meal (#TunaPower).



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) first sank to its -1 sigma level and then rose to close at 126 this week, which is almost its zero sigma level (normal = 120-125, range 100-150). All is getting quieter on the Eastern Front (WASH-BOS Elite Corridor).



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG DEC16 & SHORT MAR17) closed at -3.08 on Friday. This spread continued to drop as we slowly grinded up.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 71.26 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator is OverBought now. Tiko was dead right two weeks ago. #TunaPower. Keep in mind, it can stay overbought just like it did in late July.



SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016

This is The End (of this Analog Chart) -- just as Jim Morrison sang it, almost exactly 50 years ago, at Whiskey a Go Go on Sunset Strip in LA.


US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The YTMs on Treasury Complex shot up further except in the front end. The expected uptick in Asset Allocation trade is finally here just as our much-awaited OTF Treasury Streamer is launched. Only in the NEW AMERICA........CHEERS.

Fari Hamzei




Customer Care:





Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
Our Videos  :::  Our Blog  :::  Testimonials  :::  Tutorials & FAQs  :::  Privacy Policy
© 1998-2020, Hamzei Analytics, LLC.   All Rights Reserved.