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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, November 28, 2016, 1050ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #169

Sunday, November 27, 2016, 2100ET
Market Bias for Issue #169

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday Nov 11 Close at 2164.45
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Tuesday Nov 7 Close at 2139.53



This is our Trade for this week = LONG SPX or SPY CALL Spreads

SPX Secondary Profit Target = 2245
SPX Primary Profit Target = 2235
SPX Money Management Stop = 2200

BOTTOM LINE: We're now approaching what is traditionally a strong period for US stocks. Best is to approach it with an open mind and your bet size in check.


Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders should close 50% to 75% of their position in order to lock in the profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management Target is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, November 26, 2016, 2330ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #169


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2213.35 up +31.45 (up +1.44%) for the week ending Friday, November 26th, 2016, which closed again at about its +1.5 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2213.35 (reached on Friday, November 25, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2213.35 (reached on Friday, November 25, 2016)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2203 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2207
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2143 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2156
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2083 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2105

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +169 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 59.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Ceteris paribus, we still plan to stay long SPX into next FOMC Meeting (Dec 13-14).



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7865 or 15% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1170 or 15.1% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had another awesome week. Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had another tremendous week and rose by another 2.4%. RISK is definitely ON.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2151 or 2.9 below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2103 or 5.2% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

None of our 8 De Trenders are negative. The De Trenders for DJ TRAN & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 11/11/16 CLOSE at 2164
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Thursday 11/10/16 CLOSE at 2167
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 64 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 3 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = very near its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +6.9 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently testing its -1 sigma level at 12.34 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

The current shock wave is over. Crude Oil Vol spiked this week.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are in NEUTRAL zones.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator continued to rally and crossed 70%. Again, every night this past week, my XO, @Capt_Tiko, checked this indicator after his evening meal (#TunaPower). He now has his eyes set for 75% to 80% for the peak of current rally.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) first sank to its -1 sigma level and then rose to close at 126 this week, which is almost its zero sigma level (normal = 120-125, range 100-150). All is quiet on the Eastern Front (WASH-BOS Elite Corridor).



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG DEC16 & SHORT MAR17) closed at -3.51 on Friday. This spread showed moderate pullback, as indices continued the grind higher.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 87.1 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator is signalling extreme overbought reading now. Even @Capt_Tiko is getting somewhat apprehensive.



SPX 2000 Analog for SPX 2016

This Analog Chart is beyond its shelf life. RIP.


US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

This weekend we added ATH for last 7 years to each chart. It will give us a better prespective as YTMs rally here as DJT starts to put into action his econ plan (he had a plan? asks Tiko LOL).

The YTMs on Treasury Complex shot up again on both ends and the middle of the yield curve.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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