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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, December 7, 2016, 1510ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

If SPX Closes tonight at 2240 or higher, ceteris paribus, we will go FLAT this evening with Timer Digest till Sunday Night.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, December 5, 2016, 1035ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #170

Monday, December 5, 2016, 0345ET
UPDATED Market Bias for Issue #170

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday Nov 11 Close at 2164.45
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Tuesday Nov 7 Close at 2139.53



This is our Trade for this week = LONG SPX or SPY CALL SPREADs

SPX Secondary Profit Target = 2235
SPX Primary Profit Target = 2215-2220
SPX Money Management Stop = 2195

BOTTOM LINE: We have had a pretty decent rally in S&P-500 e-mini futures during the last 2 hours, albeit on a thin volume. Cautiously, you could get long callspreads once options markets open, using 1/2 of your normal bet size, till SPX crosses 2210. Then, ceteris paribus, you're cleared to throttle up to full size.


Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders should close 50% to 75% of their position in order to lock in the profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management Target is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, December 4, 2016, 2100ET
Market Bias for Issue #170

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday Nov 11 Close at 2164.45
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Tuesday Nov 7 Close at 2139.53



This is our Trade for this week = NONE as of this writing....

SPX Secondary Profit Target = N/A
SPX Primary Profit Target = N/A
SPX Money Management Stop = N/A

BOTTOM LINE: Italy referendum was defeated and markets initially sold off moderately but it has recovered quite a bit now....Since the next major news is scheduled for next week (Dec FOMC), let's first see how we close on Monday (or Tuesday).


Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders should close 50% to 75% of their position in order to lock in the profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management Target is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, December 4, 2016, 2030ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #170


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2191.95 down -21.40 (down -0.97%) for the week ending Friday, December 2nd, 2016, which closed at about its +0.5 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2214.10 (reached on Wednesday, November 30, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2213.35 (reached on Friday, November 25, 2016)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2238 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2219
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2177 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2162
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2117 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2105

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +4 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 51.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Ceteris paribus, we still plan to stay long SPX into next FOMC Meeting (Dec 13-14).



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 7909 or 14.4% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1178 or 11.5% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) lost it mojo and basically did nothing. Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a tough week and gave back 2% in 4 days but RISK is definitely still ON.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2156 or 1.7 below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2110 or 3.8% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

One of our eight DeTrenders is negative. The De Trenders for DJ TRAN & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 11/11/16 CLOSE at 2164
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Thursday 12/07/16 CLOSE at 2241
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 79 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 7 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = very near its +0.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +0.2 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently at its +1 sigma level at 14.12 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

The current shock wave is over. Crude Oil Vol sank faster than lead in water this week after OPEC agreed on its first production freeze since 2008.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are in NEUTRAL zones.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator continued backed off down to 61%, having run up for 52 to 70 since the General Election.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) pretty much stayed near its zero sigma level and then closed at 129 this week. (normal = 120-125, range 100-150). All remain quiet on the Eastern Front (WASH-BOS Elite Corridor).



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG DEC16 & SHORT MAR17) closed at -3.23 on Friday. This spread showed very little movement while SPX dropped by less than 1%.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 45.2 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This indicator sold off and closed in the neutral zone.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The YTMs on Treasury Complex was nearly flat this past week. 10 days from now, these charts should come alive when FOMC meets for last time in 2016.

Fari Hamzei




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