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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, December 27, 2016, 1045ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #173

Monday, December 26, 2016, 2315ET
Market Bias for Issue #173

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Mon Dec 12 Close at 2256.96
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Wednesday Dec 7 Close at 2241.35


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop = 2280
Current SPX (BreakEven Stop) = 2264
SPX Primary Profit Target = 2210
SPX Secondary Profit Target = 2185


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY JAN 6, 2017 227 Put
SELL SPY JAN 6, 2017 217 Put
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Put Spread.

Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 75% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 75% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, December 26, 2016, 2300ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #173


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2263.79 up +5.72 (up 0.25%) for the week ending Friday, December 23th, 2016, which closed near its +1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2277.53 (reached on Tuesday, December 13, 2016)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2271.72 (reached on Tuesday, December 13, 2016)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2297 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2266
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2239 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2174
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2181 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2083

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +23 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 49.2 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Not much change was seen from prior week.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8042 or 14.3% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1202 or 14.1% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) changed very little last week. Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) changed very little last week.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2185 or 3.6% below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2131 or 6.2% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

NONE of our eight DeTrenders are negative. The DeTrenders for DJ TRAN & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday 12/07/16 CLOSE at 2241
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 37 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 2 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 = very near its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -0.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently at its -1 sigma level at 11.5 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX Complex changed very little last week.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are NEUTRAL right now.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator retreated to 67% which shows very little change from last week.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) spiked to its +1 sigma level then back down to -1 sigma and then closed at 120. (normal = 120-125, range 100-150). All remain quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts as SKEW sigma channels are very tightly spaced.



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

So, Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG JAN17 & SHORT APR17) closed at -3.85 on Friday. This spread was also very flat last week.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 59 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

SP2 also changed very little last week.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The YTMs on Treasury Complex hardly changed last week.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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