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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

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Sunday, January 8, 2017, 2255ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #175

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2276.98 up +38.15 (up +1.7%) for the week ending Friday, January 6th, 2017, which closed near its +2 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2282.10 (reached on Friday, January 6, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2276.98 (reached on Friday, January 6, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2279 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2287
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2261 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2182
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2242 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2077

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +68 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 54.8 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Last week SPX had a very nice run helping DJIA get within 40 cents of 20,000.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8090 or 12.5% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1213 or 12.6% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) ran a very special sausage ops algo, that tells us ROMANs are getting into the Transport Biz. LOL
Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) was very confused as evidenced by the Railroad Tracks. RISK is still ON, ioho.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2204 or 3.3% below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2140 or 6.4% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

NONE of our eight DeTrenders are negative. The DeTrenders for DJ TRAN & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 1/6/17 CLOSE at 2277
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 28 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 2 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +0.6 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently at its -1 sigma level at 11.3 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX Complex dropped modestly this past week.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are again NEUTRAL for now with a possible SELL signal coming up for NASDAQ.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator retreated to 70% - no signal here as we see no divergence, as of now.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) rose & dropped gradually last week and finally ended up just about its zero sigma at 123. (normal = 120-125, range 100-150). All remain quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts as SKEW sigma channels are very tightly spaced.

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG JAN17 & SHORT APR17) dropped gradually each day till it closed at -4.13 on Friday.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 70 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

SP2 rallied hard from 26 (that is one reason we went long last Monday night).

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The YTMs on Treasury Complex continued to drop this past week till Friday which they reversed a tad on DEEZ NFP Release.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, December 31, 2016, 1440ET
Market Timing Commentary sent to Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

We expect at least one more down day as our prop momentum indicators are barely hanging over the oversold zone. We surmise that sometime this week, our very short-term momentum indicators, will get exhausted and start to build a base for a dead-cat bounce.

We would love to see SPX 2200 (-2 sigma by the time we get down there), but SPX 2220-2215 could be a tough hurdle to get thru. We shall see. Going forward, in our humble opinion, the analog for SPX 2017 should be SPX 1981 (or possibly 1982).

Happy New Year to All…. specially to our Armed Forces whom are stationed overseas and in harm’s way.

Fari Hamzei

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