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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, January 19, 2017, 1635ET
UPDATED HA SP1_momo Chart


HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Wednesday 1/18/17 CLOSE at 2272
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 15 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 5 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at about its -1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -5.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Thursday, January 19, 2017, 1515ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

We plan to go SHORT SPX today at the Close…………

Fari Hamzei

Monday, January 16, 2017, 2015ET
Market Bias for Issue #176

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is FLAT SPX as of Fri Jan 6 Close at 2276.98
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of Friday Dec 30 Close at 2238.83


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop = N/A
Current SPX (BreakEven Stop) = 2275
SPX Primary Profit Target = N/A
SPX Secondary Profit Target = N/A


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
N/A SPY N/A N/A N/A
N/A SPY N/A N/A N/A
We have no trade as our market bias remains FLAT SPX as of this writing.

Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 75% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 75% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, January 15, 2017, 2200ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #176


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2274.64 down -2.34 (down -0.1%) for the week ending Friday, January 13th, 2017, which closed at its +1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2282.10 (reached on Friday, January 6, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2276.98 (reached on Friday, January 6, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2283 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2299
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2264 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2187
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2245 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2075

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +48 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 57.4 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Last week, SPX failed to provide any significant price action in either direction. We saw a good mount of intraday vol, however, SPX cash closed the week where it started on Jan 6th. Glad we stayed FLAT. NDX displayed a better price action and moved up slightly over 1%, but only after exhibiting some intraday vol.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8120 or 12.5% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1220 or 12.6% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) was tepid as well, after trading with higher vol than normal on the intraday basis.
Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) stayed confused, as evidenced by either a very tight range, or candlesticks with huge wicks. RISK is still ON, IMHO.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2219 or 2.5% below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2146 or 6.0% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

NONE of our eight DeTrenders are negative. The DeTrenders for DJ TRAN & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 1/6/17 CLOSE at 2277
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 31 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 4 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -0.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently at its -1 sigma level at 11.3 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX Complex dropped modestly this past week. The big move was in OVX (crude oil)



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are again NEUTRAL for now and the strong SELL signal for NASDAQ on Jan 9th was totally ignored and set aside (Teflon like Reagan or like Trump?).



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This past week, this scoring indicator was flat-lined between 69% to 70%.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) dropped to -1 sigma and then rose gradually and finally ending at about its +2 sigma at 132. (normal = 120-125, range 100-150). May be all is not quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts.... stay tuned sailors.



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG FEB & SHORT MAY as we rolled on Friday from LONG JAN, SHORT APR) dropped gradually each day till it closed at -3.45 on Friday.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 61 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

SP2 went sideways and ended only slightly lower.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The YTMs on Treasury Complex also had a very tight week specially in the longer end of the Yield Curve.

Fari Hamzei




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