Investment Advice via real time put call ratio real time investment advice
Contact Us Home Products News About Members
Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, January 31, 2017, 1430ET
UPDATED Market Bias for Issue #178

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Tues Jan 24 at 2280.07
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Thur Jan 19 at 2263.69


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target = 2300-2310
SPX Primary Profit Target = 2285-2290
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) = 2270
SPX Money Management Stop = 2265


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY 02/10/2017 226 Calls
SELL SPY 02/10/2017 231 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call Spread.

Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 75% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 75% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, January 30, 2017, 1300ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #178

Monday, January 30, 2017, 0045ET
Market Bias for Issue #178

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Tues Jan 24 at 2280.07
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Thur Jan 19 at 2263.69


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target = 2325
SPX Primary Profit Target = 2315
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) = 2295
SPX Money Management Stop = 2275


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY 02/10/2017 227 Calls
SELL SPY 02/10/2017 232 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call Spread.

Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 75% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 75% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, January 29, 2017, 2330ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #178


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2294.69 up +23.38 (up +1.03%) for the week ending Friday, January 27th, 2017, closed near its +2 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2300.99 (reached on Thursday, January 26, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2298.97 (reached on Wednesday, January 25, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2299 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2322
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2272 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2200
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2244 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2078

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +12 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 53.4 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Once again, SPX failed to provide any price expansion in either direction. We saw a good amount of intraday vol, specially before and after inauguration of DJT 45.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8187 or 15.4% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1231 or 11.3% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a nice run-up to ATH.
Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) also had a nice rally but not to new ATH. Risk remains ON.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2245 or 2.2% below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2156 or 6.4% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

All of our eight De Trenders remain positive. The De Trenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday 1/25/17 CLOSE at 2272
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 83 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 7 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at just about its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -0.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently at its -1.5 sigma level at 10.58 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

The VOL Complex moved modestly this past week.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are again NEUTRAL for now.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This past week, this scoring indicator was again flat-lined between 69% to 71%.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) sank to zero sigma at 130. (normal = 120-125, range 100-150). All is quiet again on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts....



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG FEB & SHORT MAY) did not change much last week and closed at -3.72 on Friday. NO SIGNAL HERE, YET.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 70 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

SP2 rallied to +77.4 and then sank to 70.1, showing a sign of possible exhaustion.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The YTMs were glued to their monthly pivots. Sausage Ops in the Bond Market? This must be new. Aren't ROMANs on some sort of visa restrictions re visiting Treasury Complex? LOL

Fari Hamzei




Customer Care:





Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
Our Videos  :::  Our Blog  :::  Testimonials  :::  Tutorials & FAQs  :::  Privacy Policy
© 1998-2020, Hamzei Analytics, LLC.   All Rights Reserved.