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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

Weekly PMT Webinars on YouTube   PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Friday, February 10, 2017, 1541ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest

Dear PMT Pro Member,

WE PLAN TO GO FLAT SPX at the Close today with Timer Digest.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, February 6, 2017, 1040ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #179

Sunday, February 5, 2017, 1900ET
Market Bias for Issue #179

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Tues Jan 24 at 2280.07
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Thur Jan 19 at 2263.69

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target = 2335
SPX Primary Profit Target = 2325
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) = 2297
SPX Money Management Stop = 2285

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY 02/24/2017 228 Calls
SELL SPY 02/24/2017 233 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call Spread.

Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 75% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 75% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, February 4, 2017, 1900ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #179

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2297.42 up +2.73 (up +0.12%) for the week ending Friday, February 3rd, 2017, closed near its +2 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2300.99 (reached on Thursday, January 26, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2298.97 (reached on Wednesday, January 25, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2299 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2334
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2278 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2208
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2257 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2082

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +51 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 56 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Once again, SPX failed to provide any price expansion in either direction. We saw a good amount of intraday vol, specially before FOMC and then during January NFP.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8216 or 12.5% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1237 or 11.3% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) finally managed to bounce off its 50-bar MA (3rd time during this rally since the general election).
Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a huge day on Friday after January NFP blasted thru the consensus opinion, both for headline and privates. RISK remains HOT RED.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2255 or 1.9% below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2161 or 6.3% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

All of our eight De Trenders remain positive again. The De Trenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 2/3/17 CLOSE at 2297
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 30 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 6 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at just about its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -0.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently at its -1 sigma level at 10.97 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

The VOL Complex moved modestly LOWER this past week.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are again NEUTRAL for now. No Signal here.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This past Friday, looks like this scoring indicator wants to breakout. Target: 75%-77%

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) moved sideways and ended at zero sigma at 133. (normal = 120-125, range 100-150). All is [relatively] quiet again on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts....

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG FEB & SHORT MAY) rose slightly from last week and closed at -3.52 on Friday. NO SIGNAL HERE, YET.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 72 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

SP2 sank to 44 and then sank to 72, showing a sign of possible double top in the making or market is bid, period, thanks to Grumpie LLC.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The YTMs rose a tad from their monthly pivots. Sausage Ops continued in the Bond Market. ROMANs were found at the Gates of CBOT (some with papers LOL).

Have a great Super Bowl weekend....Go BOSTON Go.
Fari Hamzei

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