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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Friday, February 17, 2017, 1116ET
a quick note to all PMT Members


A) We went short SPX last night
B) It’s a tad over 90 minutes into RTH
C) It is Feb Options Expiration Friday
D) Here are tragets for this move 2300 (0 sig) to 2280 (50DMA) with 2255 at BTH
E) We will issue you fresh targets (depending if we see a big move today, albeit we doubt that due to OX) along with a SPY trade for PMT Pro Members Sunday night
F) We hesitate to get into an options trade here and then change it Sunday night and get you stuck with a theta decay over the weekend --not fair to you…..

Fari Hamzei

Thursday, February 16, 2017, 1530ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Ceteris paribus, we shall go short SPX tonight at the Close……

Fari Hamzei

Wednesday, February 15, 2016, 2000ET
Link for Tonight's Market Timing Webinar

Click here to Play

Thanks for attending,
Fari Hamzei

Sunday, February 12, 2017, 2020ET
Market Bias for Issue #180

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is FLAT SPX as of Fri Feb 10 at 2316.10
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of Tues Jan 24 at 2280.07


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target = N/A
SPX Primary Profit Target = N/A
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) = 2316
SPX Money Management Stop = N/A


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY N/A N/A N/A
SELL SPY N/A N/A N/A
No trade for this week yet (since we are FLAT SPX with TD).

Note: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 75% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 75% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, February 12, 2017, 1600ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #180


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2316.10 up +18.68 (up +0.8%) for the week ending Friday, February 10th, 2017, closed near its +2 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2319.23 (reached on Friday, February 10, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2316.10 (reached on Friday, February 10, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2314 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2348
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2285 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2216
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2257 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2083

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +78 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 55 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

On Wednesday, Grumpie said I will have a new tax proposal next week, and Markets said BUY BUY BUY..... the rest is history. Only in AMERICA.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8247 or 13.9% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1243 or 11.7% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) bounced one more off of its 50-bar MA (4th time during this rally since the general election).
Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) rallied very strongly on Thursday & Friday to another near ATH. RISK remains HOT RED.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2264 or 2.3% below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2166 or 6.9% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

All of our eight De Trenders remain positive again. The De Trenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday 2/8/17 CLOSE at 2295
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 30 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 6 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at just above its +2.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +3.4 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently at its -1 sigma level at 10.85 (remember it’s the VIX’s vol pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

The VOL Complex again moved LOWER this past week.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are again NEUTRAL for now. No Signal here.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This discussed here last week, this scoring indicator rose to ~76% (our target posted in last issue wsa "Target: 75%-77%"). Targeting info is courtesy of HRH @Capt_Tiko, KBE. Bravo Tiko.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) moved lower and ended just above its -1 sigma at 130. (normal = 120-125, range 100-150). All is [relatively] quiet again on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts....



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Next Wednesday is FEB VIX expiration so, per our standard protocol for this indicator, on Friday, we rolled forward our VX Spread. Our new 3-month VIX Futures Spread (LONG MAR & SHORT JUN) dropped further and closed at -3.37 near its -3 sigma on Friday. We are nearing OVERBOUGHT HERE.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 84.4 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

SP2 is now in OVERBOUGHT zone, thanks to Grumpie LLC. That's part of the reason we went flat before the Close on Friday.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The front-end EBY rose above its monthly pivot while longer-dated paper YTMs sank somewhat and settled near their respective monthly pivots.

HRH @Capt_Tiko had NE at neg 3. He won big time, thanks to Tom Brady and he's been happy as a clam ever since. Only in AMERICA.
Fari Hamzei




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