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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, March 13, 2017, 1045ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #183

Sunday, March 12, 2017, 2215ET
Market Bias for Issue #184

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Tues Feb 21 at 2365.38
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Thur Feb 16 at 2347.22


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2410
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2400
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) for last 20% of our position = 2372
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2360


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY 03/31/2017 237 Calls
SELL SPY 03/31/2017 242 Calls
We are holding the same Call Spread we put on Thursday, March 9th.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, March 12, 2017, 1300ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #184



Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2372.60 down -10.52 (down -0.44%) for the week ending Friday, March 10, 2017, which closed just above its zero sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2400.98 (reached on Wednesday, March 1, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2395.96 (reached on Wednesday, March 1, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2398 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2418
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2361 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2259
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2325 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2101

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -173 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 40.76 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Well, we finally got our small (1.9%) pullback but our prop indicators went dramatically low.... we should head up now, ioho.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8410 or 10.5% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1269 or 7.6% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) made a dramatic run south from ATHs to -3 sigma and then bounced up its 50bar MA on Friday.
Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) also sold off hard from ATHs to -3 sigma and then went sideways on Friday (with over-the-top Feb NFP numbers reported). RISK still remains ON but no longer RED HOT.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2310 or 2.7% below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2195 or 8.1% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Two of our eight DeTrenders remain positive now. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday 2/8/17 CLOSE at 2295
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 42 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 14 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at just below its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2.86 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently at its zero sigma level at 11.66 (remember it’s the VIX’s volatility pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

The VOL Complex with exception of OVX (Crude) retreated last week by a tad.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is NEUTRAL now while NASDAQ 5-day TRIN is on SELL signal. That's the reverse pattern of last week !!



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

As expected this scoring indicator took a dive this week after rising to over 83%... Stocking up on iced tea, per written orders of our Executive Officer(XO), @Capt_Tiko have paid off. He simply knows this game too well.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) went ROMAN and created nothing but Sausage and ended just about its zero sigma at 139. (normal = 120-125, range 100-150). All is quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts.....



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our VX Spread (LONG MAR SHORT JUN) behaved pretty docile this past week, closing at -3.25 near its zero sigma on Friday.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 56 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

SP2 have a dramatic dive to 39 then reversed on Thursday (one day ahead of price). I love this indicator.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

HOUSTON, the lift-off of the Yield Curve continues, specially the front end..... MAX Q is ahead.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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