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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Friday, April 14, 2017, 1834ET
Market Comments sent to Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

With Grumpie going for a trifecta (by militarily going after Assad in Syria, ISIS in Afghanistan, Kim Jong-un in NKorea), US Markets should get the pause they need badly. Given what we see in both verbal & physical reactions by China in the last couple of days, positioning of SA-8s “Gecko” Missiles by Russia just north of its border with NKorea this morning and USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) Carrier Strike Group now steaming towards waters just off the Korean Peninsula, we expect the US Market to react negatively this coming week. As one astute professional trader put it yesterday: “unknown leads to fear which leads to panicking….”

Our downside SPX targets are 2310, then followed by 2255 then may be 2205. Negative 3 WEEKLY sigma stands at ~2150 and 200-WEEK MA at 2000.

We wish our brave sailors & airmen safe passage & bulls-eye hits while in the harm’s way…..

Fari Hamzei

Thursday, April 13, 2017, 2219ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Good Friday seasonality is normally positive.
I was away up north in Tampa, for a special medical screening, when the MOAB (GBU-43/B) was dropped.

Therefore, we are going SHORT SPX as of the Close today.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, April 10, 2017, 1055ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #187

Sunday, April 9, 2017, 1915ET
Market Bias for Issue #187

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Tues Apr 4 at 2360.16
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Mar 31 at 2362.72


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2385-2390
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2375
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) for last 20% of our position = 2355
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2345


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY 04/28/17 236 Calls
SELL SPY 04/28/17 241 Calls
We are holding the same CallSpread trade from last week
with only minor changes in our targets.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, April 8, 2017, 0830ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #187


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2355.54 down -7.18 (down -0.3%) for the week ending Friday, April 7, 2017, which closed just about its zero sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2400.98 (reached on Wednesday, March 1, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2395.96 (reached on Wednesday, March 1, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2386 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2417
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2361 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2304
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2336 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2190

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +49 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 56 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Well, Capt Tiko is still wondering which was worse for our markets? Dr Yellen & Co internal debate as reported in the Minutes of the most recent FOMC Meeting or $85 Mil Grumpie spent Thursday night by giving EXECUTE Order to launch 60 TLAMs into Shyrat Airbase in western Syria, or, the very soft March NFP with sizable downward revisions to JAN & FEB payroll data.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8546 or 6.5% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1290 or 5.8% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transports (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) made our ROMAN Legion very happy. We could smell the sausage making all the way down here in Naples ROFLOL.
In contrast, Russell 2000 small caps (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a mild setback, as it sold off moderately to below its 50day MA. RISK still remains ON.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2346 or 0.4% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2221 or 6% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Only two of our eight DeTrenders still remain negative. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 3/31/17 CLOSE at 2362
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 38 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 8 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at just above its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = -0.9 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently at its +1 sigma level at 12.37, having traded over 15 last Monday (over +4 sigma) right before Capt Tiko issued his BUY SIGNAL (remember it’s the VIX’s volatility pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

This week we saw more VIX Sausage by the ROMANs. Wake me up at 15+.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both 5-day TRINs are NEUTRAL here.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator barely moved and it is still at 79%. NO SIGNAL HERE.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) came down further and settled near its zero sigma at 132 (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

All is quiet again on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts.



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our VX Spread (LONG APR SHORT JUL) moved rather abruptly this past week, closing at -1.2 near its hourly zero sigma on Friday. It should be noted that correlation of this important vol benchmark vs ESM17 at times is normal and at times reversed. This is of a concern to us (may be signaling further erosion ahead). Only time will tell.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 44.6 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

No signal here....



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The front-end of Yield Curve keeps rising (in relative term) and the back-end ticking lower or sideways. A great show is ahead in the Debt Markets. As we say in the NAVY, fasten your harness, sailor.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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