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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, April 25, 2017, 0910ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #189

Monday, April 24, 2017, 0900ET
Market Bias for Issue #189

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Thurs Apr 13 at 2328.95
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of Tues Apr 4 at 2360.16

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2380
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) for last 20% of our position = 2375
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our postiion = 2350
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2335

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY 05/19/17 237 Puts
SELL SPY 05/19/17 233 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a PutSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, April 22, 2017, 1945ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #189

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2348.69 up +19.74 (up +0.85%) for the week ending Friday, April 21, 2017, which closed just about its at zero sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2400.98 (reached on Wednesday, March 1, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2395.96 (reached on Wednesday, March 1, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2371 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2409
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2352 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2317
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2333 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2225

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +26 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 51.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

SPX still remains below its 50-day MA. This week we should see some upside pressure on the VOLS.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8619 or 6% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1300 or 6.1% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) rallied this past week but still failed to rise above the key level of 50-day MA.
In like fashion, Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) moved up but also managed to close just above its 50-day MA. For now, RISK is still rather muted.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2357 or 0.4% above SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2234 or 5.1% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Only TWO of our EIGHT DeTrenders are now negative. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Monday 4/10/17 CLOSE at 2357
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 39 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 3 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at just above its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = +0.2 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently stands at 14.63, or just a tad below its +1 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s volatility pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

We expect to see another spike in VIX in a week or two but not higher than its **then** +2.5 sigma. That should give us a tradeable bottom.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

5-day TRIN is still hovering around its BUY zone while 5-day TRINQ near its SELL zone.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator stayed pretty much around 75%. And still NO DIVERGENEE SIGNAL HERE yet.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) rallied hard to almost its +3 sigma at 148.5 (normal = 120-125, range 100-150) ahead of first round of French Elections.

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? NOPE. We read this as the markets are expecting Marine LePen, the colorful leader of Front National, to eventually win on May 7th and put Frexit into motion.

We favor Marine too.

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our VX Spread (LONG MAY SHORT AUG) moved around quite a bit but still closed near where it was last Thursday, at -0.84, and just a tad over its hourly +2 sigma.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 50.8 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

We are in the NEUTRAL zone for now.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

This past week, the US Bond Market rallied and pushed down the YTMs, from the short term to the long end, of the Yield Curve.

Fari Hamzei

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