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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, May 9, 2017, 2345ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #191

Tuesday, May 9, 2017, 2340ET
UPDATED Market Bias for Issue #191

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Thurs Apr 13 at 2328.95
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of Tues Apr 4 at 2360.16


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2415
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) for last 20% of our position = 2397
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our postiion = 2370
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2355


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY May 24 240 Puts
SELL SHORT SPY May 24 230 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a PutSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, May 7, 2017, 2300ET
Market Bias for Issue #191

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Thurs Apr 13 at 2328.95
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of Tues Apr 4 at 2360.16


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = N/A
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) for last 20% of our position = N/A
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our postiion = N/A
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = N/A


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
N/A SPY N/A N/A N/A
N/A SPY N/A N/A N/A
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a PutSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, May 7, 2017, 2030ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #191


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2399.29 up +15.09 (up +0.6%) for the week ending Friday, May 5, 2017, which closed at about its +1.5 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2400.98 (reached on Wednesday, March 1, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2399.29 (reached on Friday, May 5, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2411 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2424
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2368 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2330
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2325 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2237

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +6 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 54.1 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

As of this writing, markets have dodged a missile as Emmanuel Macron of En Marche! defeated Marine Le Pen of Front National in French election and for now EU & Euro are "safe" but French/EU/Euro problems are not over and that battle shall be fought at a later date.


Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8685 or 5.8% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1311 or 6.6% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) went sideways for most of last week and closed above it 50-day MA.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) sank for most of last week till found support at its zero sigma/50-day MA. RISK, in the immortal words of Led Zeppelin is "dazed & confused" for now.....


DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2366 or 1.4% below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2246 or 6.8% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

None of our EIGHT DeTrenders are negative. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.


HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Monday 4/24/17 CLOSE at 2374
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 52 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 14 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at just above its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +2 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)


Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX is currently stands at 10.57, or just at its -1 sigma (remember it’s the VIX’s volatility pattern (its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and the inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Lat Monday SPOT VIX traded in single digits. This shall pass too......


5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both of our 5-day TRINs are at or near NEUTRAL zones here. No Signal as of now.


Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator after testing 72% came back up and closed at 75%.


SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) gave back hard and then stabilized at 131 (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money thinks YES. Do we? Don't ask and we won't tell (LOL).


3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our VX Spread (LONG MAY SHORT AUG) stayed flat-lined this week between -2.2 & -2.6, and, finally ended up at -2.44. This is still a NEUTRAL signal, for now.


HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 76.7 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

We are in the OVERBOUGHT zone right now, but we could remain overbought for a while.


US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

This past week, the US Bond Market sold off and pushed up the YTMs across the board.

Fari Hamzei



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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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