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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, June 5, 2017, 1035ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #195

Sunday, June 4, 2017, 2230ET
Market Bias for Issue #195

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Thurs Apr 13 at 2328.95
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of Tues Apr 4 at 2360.16


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2455
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) for last 20% of our position = 2439
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our postiion = 2400
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2380


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday JUN 23 245 Puts
SELL SHORT SPY Friday JUN 23 235 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a PutSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, June 4, 2017, 1500ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #195


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2439.07 up +23.25 (up +0.96%) for the week ending Friday, June 2, 2017, which closed at its +2 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2440.23 (reached on Friday, June 2, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2439.07 (reached on Friday, June 2, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2437 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2441
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2400 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2359
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2364 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2277

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +76.5 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 59.8 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

With divergences galore, our markets continue to demonstrate a non-stop case of irrational exuberance (and for what is the 64MM question - adjusted for value of USD these days LOL). While we cannot get long with these lofty internals’ readings, keep shorting this market (specially via higher strike long puts) has been a tough & expensive proposition of late.
The seasonality for early June favors the bearish side and if former FBI Dir Comey has a bombshell in his testimony before Senate Intel Committee on Thursday, that is NOT already discounted by market participants, maybe we see a pullback before it is bought again by the raging bulls.

Go Figure…




Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 8801 or 6% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 5 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1326 or 5.9% below RUT (max observed in last 5 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) rallied hard on Thursday & early Friday and is still ~3% below its ATH. Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) also rallied hard off of its 50day MA and now stands at 1% below its ATH.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2368 or 1.8% below SPX closed on Friday (max observed in last 5 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2251 or 6.8% below SPX (max observed in last 5 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

ALL of our EIGHT DeTrenders are POSITIVE for 2nd week in a row. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Thursday 5/25/17 CLOSE at 2357
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 123 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 18 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 at just above its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +5.3 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 9.8, or just above its -1 sigma ( remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself ( this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Vol Indices remained fairly quiet this week. Remember Navy Sailors recall that Vol Cycles are more predictive than Price Cycles.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is still in the NEUTRAL zone while the NASDAQ 5-day TRINQ remains in close to a SELL signal.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator while did not test 50% zone, is in an strong divergence with SPX. This is a must watch indicator going forward.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) stayed in 124-125 range near its -1 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? For now, large market participants think YES. We disagree but then again we're just another PDI......LOL.



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Our VX Spread traded from about -2.5 to -3 for most of last week. No signal here.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 84.7 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

We are very OVERBOUGHT now. Will the markets sell off here? Who knows. Just like Ferdinand Magellan, we're in unchartered waters, ioho.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

Last week was another flight to safety week in our Debt Markets with US Notes & Bonds rallying higher as YTMs fell further.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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