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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

Weekly PMT Webinars on YouTube   PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, July 19, 2017, 1604ET
Notice of Change of Market Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

We are going FLAT SPX for couple of days…… as of the Close today at 2473.83

Fari Hamzei

Monday, July 17, 2017, 1035ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #201

Sunday, July 16, 2017, 1955ET
Market Bias for Issue #201

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday July 7 at 2425.18
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Thurs Apr 13 at 2328.95

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2480
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our postiion = 2470
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) for last 20% of our position = 2459
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2445

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday AUG 4 245 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday AUG 4 250 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a CallSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, July 16, 2017, 1930ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #201

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2459.27 up +34.09 (up +1.41%) for the week ending Friday, July 14, 2017, which closed just above its +2 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2463.54 (reached on Friday, July 14, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2459.27 (reached on Friday, July 14, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2457 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2467
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2434 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2395
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2410 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2323

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +84.3 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 56.5 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Great run up this week in global indices and we should see some follow thru as we get into Q2 Earnings Season

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9031 or 7.9% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1351 or 5.7% below RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) continued to move higher, and in the process, making a new ATH almost every day this past week. Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) moved higher but it did not break above its ATH "print" on June 9th. Nonetheless, RISK is still ON.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2419 or 1.6% below SPX close of Friday (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2306 or 6.6% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Now all of our EIGHT DeTrenders are POSITIVE while the DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Thursday 7/13/17 CLOSE at 2448
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 54 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 17 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed at just about its +3 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +3.2 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 9.5, or just at its -2 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself ( this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Vol Indices downshifted this past week, with the exception of WTI crude.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

The both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are on SELL signals.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator continues to exhibit divergences with SPX. Closed at 73.8%. A test of 77% is next.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) rose up this past week to is +2 sigma, or about 138 (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Of course NOT. This ain't over till the Fat Lady sings.

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

We are now tracking AUG minus NOV VX Spread. We again state that this indicator went no nowhere fast during the past week.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 77 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our fav prop indicator had a great run this past week (from 32 to 77). Now we have to watch this indicator carefully for any clues.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Treasury Market eased off this past week with the most impact in 5-yr notes.

Fari Hamzei

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