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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, July 26, 2017, 0935ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #202

Wednesday, July 26, 2017, 0935ET
Market Bias for Issue #202

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Tuesday July 25 at 2477.08
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Thurs July 19 at 2473.83


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2510
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our postiion = 2495
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) for last 20% of our position = 2477
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2450


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday AUG 11 247 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday AUG 11 251 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a CallSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, July 25, 2017, 2344ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Given how the prop internals that we watch have moved since last Thursday, it’s that time again……

We’re getting LONG SPX for about a week or so.
Today’s SPX Close was 2477.13.
Our SPX Target is 2500 to 2525 (that was a good year)!

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, July 23, 2017, 2300ET
Market Bias for Issue #202

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is FLAT SPX as of Thurs July 19 at 2473.83 (ATH)
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of Friday July 7 at 2425.18


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = N/A
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our postiion = N/A
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) for last 20% of our position = 2473
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = N/A


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY N/A N/A N/A
SELL SHORT SPY N/A N/A N/A
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a CallSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, July 23, 2017, 1615ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #202


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2472.54 up +13.27 (up +0.54%) for the week ending Friday, July 21, 2017, which closed just above its +1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2477.62 (reached on Thursday, July 20, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2473.83 (reached on Wednesday, July 19, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2479 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2478
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2441 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2399
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2403 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2320

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +55 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 58.1 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Another great run-up due mainly to an over all solid earnng season but SPX did not reach 2500 (major price octave).



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9069 or 4.4% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1356 or 5.9% below RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) SOLD OFF pretty hard this past week. This is not a good omen, specially in a week that most other indices made new ATHs. Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) has made four new ATHs out of last five trading sessions.... meaning, RISK is ON big time.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2426 or 1.9% below SPX close of Friday (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2314 or 6.8% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Again this week, all of our EIGHT DeTrenders are POSITIVE while the DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Thursday 7/13/17 CLOSE at 2448
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 71 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 5 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed at just about its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +2.8 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 9.36, or just at its -2 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself ( this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Bye Bye Vols? not so fast sailors -- we still think we are on a path to a blow off event.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is on NEUTRAL while NASDAQ 5-day TRIN still flirting with a SELL Signal.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator close at 75.4%. If you look carefully, you will note that its two MAs are rotating up very gradually. We think we are in the path to test 77-78% before next market hiccup.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) came down this past week, and tested its zero sigma before closing at 135.6 (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Of course NOT. But no one can locate the Fat Lady signer either. Could be playing golf with Don Grumpino and the "Italian Kid" in Nu Joizi.



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This indicator slowly receded at futures rallied to contract all time highs this past week. Now watching for -3 or lower.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 81 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our fav prop indicator had another great week till Wednesday when it closed 10 points above its overbought line in the sand. We went flat SPX that day with Timer Digest. We shall continue to watch this amazing indicator for further clues.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Treasury Market eased off in the mid to the long end of the Yield Curve while the front end ratcheted up ahead of FOMC Meeting (no presser) Tuesday & Wednesday of this week, thus rendering the Yield Curve uber flat for now.

Fari Hamzei




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