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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, August 7, 2017, 0945ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #204

Monday, August 7, 2017, 0935ET
Market Bias for Issue #204

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Tuesday July 25 at 2477.13
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Thurs July 19 at 2473.83

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2515
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our postiion = 2500
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Close) for last 20% of our position = 2477
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2465

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday AUG 25 248 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday AUG 25 251 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a CallSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, August 6, 2017, 2130ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #204

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2476.93 up +4.83 (up 0.2%) for the week ending Friday, August 4, 2017, which closed just below its +1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2484.04 (reached on Thursday, July 27, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2477.83 (reached on Tuesday, July 25, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2496 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2498
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2464 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2409
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2433 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2320

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -31 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 50.3 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

We saw a ton of intraday vol in NDX but SPX went nowhere fast. July NFP came in better than expected, accompanied with positive revisions for June NFP Report, notably in Manufacturing. If only Don Grumpino keeps his mouth shut and his fingers off of his twitter account......

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9129 or 1.6% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1366 or 3.4% below RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) sold further till it hit 200 Day MA and then reversed up. Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) sold off past its 50 Day MA but then on Friday after July NFP Report, reversed slightly back up. We still need to see a retest of its 50 Day MA otherwise, the next stop could be its 200 Day MA at 1366. So, for now, RISK is ON.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2443 or 1.4% below SPX close of Friday (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2330 or 6.3% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Now, SIX of our EIGHT DeTrenders are POSITIVE while the DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 8/4/17 CLOSE at 2476
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 38 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 7 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed at just about its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -1 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 10.03, or just at its zero sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself ( this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

We witnessed yet another very quiet week in the Vol Complex.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Last week both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are in NEUTRAL zones.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator is in another clear and present divergence (read: danger) with SPX after touching 77% last week. HEADS UP.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) went sideways this past week & closed at 139.81 at its +1 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Of course NOT.

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

No signal here as we are still in neurtal zone.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 61 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our fav prop indicator spent of the week above neutral and near overbought zones. STAY TUNED......

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Treasury Market also had another quiet week as August is here.

Fari Hamzei

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