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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, August 16, 2017, 1524ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

In light of recent political events, we are stepping back (going FLAT SPX) for a few days and plan to enjoy a short summer vacation till the dust settles in Washington.

This is effective as of the Close today………

Fari Hamzei

Monday, August 14, 2017, 1035ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #205

Monday, August 14, 2017, 0945ET
Market Bias for Issue #205

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Tuesday July 25 at 2477.13
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Thurs July 19 at 2473.83

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2505
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our postiion = 2490
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Monday OPEN) for last 20% of our position = 2454
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2450

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday AUG 25 246 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday AUG 25 249 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a CallSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, August 13, 2017, 2330ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #205

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2441.32 down -35.61 (down -1.44%) for the week ending Friday, August 11, 2017, which closed just about its -2.5 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2484.04 (reached on Thursday, July 27, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2477.83 (reached on Tuesday, July 25, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2492 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2499
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2470 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2414
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2447 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2329

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -201 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 41.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Most of our indicators showed that Thursday was a low and we had confirmation overnight into Friday open.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9159 or 0.4% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1370 or 0.3% below RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) has been retesting its 200 bar MA. Its early sell off into its 50day and then its 200day MA turned out to be a big tell (while SPX went up to new ATHs).

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had its worst week since Don Grumpino became the new Don (Nov 16). is RISK still ON? Don't ask and we won't

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2448 or 0.3% above SPX close of Friday (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2338 or 4.4% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Only FIVE of our EIGHT DeTrenders are POSITIVE while the DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Thursday 8/10/17 CLOSE at 2438
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 35 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 22 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed below its -3 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -6.8 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 15.51, or just at its +3 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself ( this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

In the last three trading sessions, VIX hits is +4 sigma, this normally says this shockwave is least for now.... we would love to see a retest.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is NEUTRAL while its NASDAQ brethren is in SELL zone.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

As mentioned here, this scoring indicator gave us a great HEADS UP last week !!!

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) went up fairly slowly till Wednesday then sank both on Thursday and Friday and close at 135.4 near its -1 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money thinks YES.

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

The Long SEP, Short DEEZ Spread again worked like a charm and went almost positive (confirming local minima is in) around 0400 ET on Friday as London Cash Market opened. Another BULLS-EYE signal.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 20.1 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our favorite prop indicator sank to 14.01 on Thursday close - that was the low for this leg. STAY ALERT SAILORS......

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Treasury Market rallied hard this week as YTM sank across the Yield Curve, thanks to Don Grumpino's uber hot air.

Fari Hamzei

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