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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, August 23, 2017, 0945ET
Market Bias for Issue #206

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Monday August 21 at 2428.37
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Wednesday August 16 at 2468.11


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2490
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our postiion = 2480
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2445
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2440


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday SEP 8 245 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday SEP 8 250 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a CallSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, August 22, 2017, 2300ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #206

Monday, August 21, 2017, 2345ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #206


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2428.37 down -12.95 (down -0.53%) for six trading days ending on Monday, August 21, 2017, which closed just about its -2 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2490.87 (reached on Tuesday, Aug 8, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2480.91 (reached on Monday, Aug 7, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2500 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2497
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2463 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2421
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2427 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2344

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -123 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 40.8 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Last Thursday, US Markets were nervous after a number of key CEO bolted from Don Grumpino's Manufacturing & Policy Councils. By early Friday, Steven Bannon was ousted. Finally the Generals were in control. But the epic battle for the heart & soul of Nationalists is yet to be declared over.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9196 or 0.8% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1376 or 1.4% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a tough day on Thursday and closed below its 200 day MA.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) has had two rough weeks, back to back, since Don Grumpino 45 took over the White House. Is RISK still ON? No Mas....



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2449 or 0.9% above SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2348 or 3.4% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Only TWO of our EIGHT DeTrenders are POSITIVE while the DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Thursday 8/10/17 CLOSE at 2438
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 39 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 36 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its -2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -4.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 13.2, or just at its +1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Last Thursday we saw the retest we talked about a week ago..... Vols should subside for now, ioho.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are in NEUTRAL Zone. No Signal here.....



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

A failure at 55% - 60% for this scoring indicator would make it pretty rough for this market to crawl back up.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) ratcheted up to 148.6, or its +3 sigma, on Wednesday (ahead of Thrusday bloodbath) but then came back down on Thursday & Friday and closed on Monday at 131.6 near its -2 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money thinks YES.



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

The Long SEP, Short DEEZ Spread has a negative slope. SPX should head higher.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 28.4 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our favorite prop indicator put in a bullish divergence last week. Expect higher SPX prices in the next 5 to 7 sessions.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Treasury Market rallied hard for second week in a row as YTMs sank across the Yield Curve.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, August 21, 2017, 2100ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

We are going LONG SPX as of Monday Close at 2428.37

Cheers………

Fari Hamzei




Customer Care:





Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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