Investment Advice via real time put call ratio real time investment advice
Contact Us Home Products News About Members
Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

Weekly PMT Webinars on YouTube   PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Friday, September 1, 2017, 1555ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

Our primary and secondary profit targets for this week were met, and thus, we are going FLAT SPX as of the Close today……..

Have a great Labor Day Weekend……..

Fari Hamzei

Monday, August 28, 2017, 0945ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #207

Monday, August 28, 2017, 0940ET
Market Bias for Issue #207

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Monday August 21 at 2428.37
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Wednesday August 16 at 2468.11

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2480
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our postiion = 2470
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2447
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2435

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday SEP 8 245 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday SEP 8 250 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a CallSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, August 27, 2017, 2145ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #207

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2443.05 up +15.13 (up +0.62%) for the week ending on Friday, August 25, 2017, which closed just about its -1 sigma & below its 50 day MA.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2490.87 (reached on Tuesday, Aug 8, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2480.91 (reached on Monday, Aug 7, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2494 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2499
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2457 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2422
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2420 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2345

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +24 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 53 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

News of Tax Reform efforts led by Gary Cohn and Steve Mnuchin lifted our equity markets on Tuesday. Rest of the week was uneventful.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9214 or 0.9% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1380 or 0.2% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) is still trading below its 200 day MA.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) has tried very hard to regain its 200 day MA. Is RISK ON? still NO....

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2450 or 0.3% above SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2355 or 3.7% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Only THREE of our EIGHT DeTrenders are POSITIVE while the DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Thursday 8/10/17 CLOSE at 2438
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 27 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 26 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = -0.5 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 11.28, or just below its zero sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Last Tuesday, we saw VIX drop and since then it has been fairly quiet.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are in NEUTRAL Zone. No Signal here.....

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

During the past week, this scoring indicator tested its 62.5% level and then closed at 65%. We are still watching 55% to 60% area carefully.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) sank to 130, or its -1.5 sigma, on Wednesday (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money thinks YES.

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

The Long SEP, Short DEEZ Spread continues to exhibit a negative slope. SPX should head higher into Labor Day long weekend.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 47.6 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our favorite prop indicator again did what it does best. It exhibited a unique prescient of short-term market behavior.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Treasury Market went sideways last week as most players were on their last weeks of summer vacations.

Fari Hamzei

Customer Care:

Chat with Fari on Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
HA YouTube Channel  :::  HA Blog  :::  Testimonials  :::  Tutorials & FAQs  :::  Privacy Policy
(c) 1998-2024, Hamzei Analytics, LLC.   All Rights Reserved.