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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, September 14, 2017, 2347ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Due to Hurricane Irma, I have very little internet bandwidth in Naples and that is why I am using my GMail for this important message.

We are going FLAT SPX as of today, Thursday, September 14, 2017. Please confirm when you receive this email to both this GMail and my HA email addresses. Thank You.

I will contact you again next week....

Fari Hamzei

Thursday, September 7, 2017, 0935ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #208

Thursday, September 7, 2017, 0935ET
Market Bias for Issue #208

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Wednesday SEP 6 at 2465.54
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Friday September 1 at 2476.55


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2490
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our postiion = 2480
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2466
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2435


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday SEP 15 247 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday SEP 15 250 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a CallSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Wednesday, September 6, 2017, 1547ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

We are going LONG SPX … this is a short term call...

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, September 5, 2017, 2315ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #208


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2457.85 up +14.80 (up +0.6%) for the six trading days ending on Tuesday, September 5, 2017, which closed just about its -1 sigma & below its 50 day MA.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2490.87 (reached on Tuesday, Aug 8, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2480.91 (reached on Monday, Aug 7, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2484 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2492
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2452 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2434
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2420 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2376

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +47 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 57 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

We saw a good rally last week specially in NDX and RUT. On Tuesday, news of DPRK's first nuke test durnig Don Grumpino's presidency rattled the US Markets.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9233 or 0.4% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1383 or 0.2% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) came back strong last week, but sold off today.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) showed a renewal in its strenght by closing above its 50 day MA but gave that up today.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2453 or 0.2% above SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2363 or 4% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Only TWO of our EIGHT DeTrenders are NEGATIVE while the DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday 8/29/17 CLOSE at 2446
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 18 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 18 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +0.66 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 12.23, or just about its zero sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Last week, VIX complex sold off but today it had a 20% gain. Still fairly quiet.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are in NEUTRAL Zone. No Signal here.....



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

During the past week, this scoring indicator AGAIN tested its 62.5% level. We are still watching 55% to 60% area carefully.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) rose a tad to 133, or its -0.5 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money still thinks YES.



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

The Long SEP, Short DEEZ Spread exhibited a negative slope till Friday and reversed and hooked up. We should see at least one more down day.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 50.6 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our favorite prop indicator again did what it does best. It rallied to 79.9 on Friday. That is when we closed our long positions. Viva HA_SP2.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Treasury Market went sideways last week and went up on Monday as YTM sank. Flight to Quality? ubetcha.....

Fari Hamzei




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