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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, September 19, 2017, 0955ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #209

Tuesday, September 19, 2017, 0945ET
Market Bias for Issue #209

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Monday SEP 18 at 2503.87
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Thursday SEP 14 at 2495.62


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2516
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2504
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2450
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2425


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday OCT 6 249 Puts
SELL SHORT SPY Friday OCT 6 244 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a PutSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, September 18, 2017, 1521ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Dear Jim, We are getting slightly SHORT SPX as of the Close today………

Fari Hamzei

Saturday, September 16, 2017, 1645ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #209


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2500.23 up +38.80 (up +1.58%) for the week ending on Friday, September 15, 2017, which closed just about its +1.5 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2500.23 (reached on Friday, Sep 15, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2500.23 (reached on Friday, Sep 15, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2509 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2501
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2463 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2440
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2417 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2380

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +99 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 56.5 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Many weeks ago we stated that 2500 for SPX is a crucial 'PRICE OCTAVE.' Many emails & tweets came in asking what does that mean. Well, best is to ask the shorts LOL.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9254 or 3.2% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1387 or 3.2% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) is on a roar again. We love it.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) continued its strenght by shooting up further.... RISK is back ON.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2462 or 1.5% above SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2375 or 5.3% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Only TWO of our EIGHT DeTrenders are NEGATIVE while the DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday 8/29/17 CLOSE at 2446
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 87 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 3 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +3.8 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 10.17, or just about its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Last week, VIX complex continued to sell off.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is near its SELL Zone. No Signal here for NAZZ.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

During the past week, this scoring indicator shot up and test 69% level. Be aware of multiple divergences during CY2017 here.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) rose a tad to 144, or its +1.5 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money thinks NO.



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

The Long OCT17, Short JAN18 Spread exhibited a shallow negative slope. The market is bid now.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 50.6 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our favorite prop indicator rallied to 80.2 on Wednesday and then pulled back on Thursday. That is when we closed our Long SPY CallSpreads positions. Viva HA_SP2.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Treasury Market sold off hard as YTMs for Notes & Bonds rallied. Front End of the Curve remained flat.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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