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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, September 25, 2017, 1135ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #210

Monday, September 25, 2017, 1130ET
Market Bias for Issue #210

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Monday SEP 18 at 2503.87
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Thursday SEP 14 at 2495.62


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2516
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2499
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2465
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2440


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday OCT 6 249 Puts
SELL SHORT SPY Friday OCT 6 244 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a PutSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, September 24, 2017, 2345ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #210


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2502.22 up +1.99 (up +0.08%) for the week ending on Friday, September 22, 2017, which closed just about its +1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2508.85 (reached on Wednesday, Sep 20, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2508.24 (reached on Wednesday, Sep 20, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2524 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2508
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2479 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2446
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2435 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2383

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +64 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 57.9 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

High Holidays are here and our markets are taking a pause. Seasonality says we should go down this week and rally next week. Happy New Year to our friends of Jewish Faith.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9268 or 4.7% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1390 or 4.4% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) is on a roar again. We love it.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) continued its strenght by shooting up further.... RISK is back ON.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2469 or 1.3% above SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2382 or 5% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

All of our EIGHT DeTrenders are POSITIVE while the DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Tuesday 8/29/17 CLOSE at 2446
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 54 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 9 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +1.3 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 9.59, or just below its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Last week, VIX managed to trade in 9 handle. FEAR is for Wimps.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is just above its SELL Zone. No Signal here for NAZZ TRINQ.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

During the past week, this scoring indicator rallied and test 70% level. We remind you to be aware of multiple divergences during CY2017.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) came in lower to 137.5, or its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money thinks so.



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

The Long OCT17, Short JAN18 Spread went sideways for most of the week and then rallied hard on Friday. The market lost its bid.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 62.46 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our favorite prop indicator rallied to 83.4 on Wednesday and then pulled back hard on Thursday.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

Our Treasury Market sold off as YTMs for Notes & Bonds rose a tad. Again the front end of the Curve remained flat.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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