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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Friday, October 6, 2017, 1529ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

We plan to go FLAT SPX at the Close today………. HAGW

Fari Hamzei

Monday, October 2, 2017, 0955ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #211

Monday, October 2, 2017, 0945ET
Market Bias for Issue #211

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday SEP 29 at 2519.36
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Monday SEP 18 at 2503.87


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2550
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2535
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2521
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2505


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday OCT 20 252 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday OCT 20 255 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a CallSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, October 1, 2017, 1536ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

With a rare low-vol September behind us, we are getting LONG SPX here. Our short-term target is 2545-2555.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, October 1, 2017, 1445ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #211


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2502.22 up +1.99 (up +0.08%) for the week ending on Friday, September 29, 2017, which closed just about its +1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2519.44 (reached on Friday, Sep 29, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2519.36 (reached on Friday, Sep 29, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2528 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2517
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2493 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2452
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2458 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2387

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +73 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 55.9 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

First low vol September in many years is behind us. Earnings Season starts next week. GOT GAMMA, our beloved @Capt_Tiko asks.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9279 or 6.8% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1392 or 7.1% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) was on a roar again, making another ATH.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) continued its moonshot.... RISK is back ON big time.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2473 or 1.9% above SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2389 or 5.5% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Again, all of our EIGHT DeTrenders are POSITIVE while the DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 9/29/17 CLOSE at 2519
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 47 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 6 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +2.4 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 9.5, right at its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Last week, VIX managed to trade in 9 handle. One more sigma will put VIX in high-8 handle.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are in NEUTRAL Zone. No Signal here.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

During the past week, this scoring indicator rallied further but could not test 75% level. We continue to remind you so you are aware of multiple divergences during CY2017.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) went down and then came back up to close at 137.5, or its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money thinks so.



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

The Long OCT17, Short JAN18 Spread went sideways for most of the week and then sank hard on Thursday & most of Friday. The market regained its bid.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 81.85 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our favorite prop indicator sank on Tuesday to 48 and then ralled hard for balance of the week.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

Our Treasury Market sold off as YTMs for Notes & Bonds rose more this past week. The front end of the Yield Curve remained flat.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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