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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

Weekly PMT Webinars on YouTube   PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, October 18, 2017, 1930ET
Link for Tonight's Market Timing Webinar #57

Click here to Play

Thanks for attending,
Fari Hamzei

Monday, October 16, 2017, 1030ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #213

Monday, October 16, 2017, 1000ET
Market Bias for Issue #213

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Monday OCT 9 at 2544.73
Our previous Market Bias was FLAT SPX as of Friday Oct 6 at 2549.33

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2570
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2556
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2530
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2510

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday NOV 10 255 Puts
SELL SHORT SPY Friday NOV 10 250 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a PutSpread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, October 15, 2017, 2330ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #213

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2553.17 up +8.44 (up +0.33%) for four trading days ending on Friday, October 13, 2017, which closed just about its +1.5 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2555.24 (reached on Wednesday, Oct 11, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2557.65 (reached on Friday, Oct 13, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2569 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2545
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2525 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2467
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2482 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2389

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +25 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 54.6 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

This week was another Sausage Ops, direct from Roma, Sicily & Milan.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9316 or 6.7% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1399 or 7.4% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) put in a new ATH on Thursday and then gave back over 1% on Friday.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) drifted down a tad .... RISK is still ON, for now.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2487 or 2.6% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2403 or 6.2% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

All of our EIGHT DeTrenders are continue to remain POSITIVE while the DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 9/29/17 CLOSE at 2519
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 94 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 12 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +1.8 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 9.51, right at its +1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Last week, VIX again continued to drift down and ended up trading in 9 handle by Friday.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is at the BUY (yes buy) zone while NASDAQ 5-day is at NEUTRAL Zone.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

During the past week, this scoring indicator tried again to test 75% level. Next breakout level is 78%. Until there is no signal here.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) was very muted & closed at 138, or its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money votes YES.

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

The Long NOV17, Short FEB18 Spread continued to trend lower as SPX made new ATHs. Equity markets remain in overbought zone.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 71.8 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our favorite prop indicator had eased off quite a bit from 94+ and setting up a possible divergence .

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

Our Treasury Market rallied hard on Friday and YTMs for Notes & Bonds adjusted down a tad this past week. The front end of the Yield Curve had a small up-tick.

Fari Hamzei

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