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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, November 30, 2017, 1559ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

Our short-term Prop Indicators are signaling a short-term overbought condition – most likely good for about one week or 1%, whichever comes first.

Thus, we are going SHORT SPX as of the Close today.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, November 28, 2017, 1547ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

After a 62 handle run from Nov 15 lows, it is time to take a break…..

Therefore, sire, we are going FLAT SPX as of the Close tonight……….


Fari Hamzei

Monday, November 27, 2017, 0940ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #218

Monday, November 27, 2017, 0935ET
Market Bias for Issue #218

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Wednesday NOV 15 at 2564.62
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Friday NOV 3 at 2587.84

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2625
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2615
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2602
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2585

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday DEC 15 260 Call
SELL SHORT SPY Friday DEC 15 264 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, November 26, 2017, 1745ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #218

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2602.42 up +20.12 (up 0.78%) for the two weeks ending on Friday, November 24, 2017, which closed at its +2 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2604.21(reached on Friday, Nov 24, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2602.42 (reached on Friday, Nov 24, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2603 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2626
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2585 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2496
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2567 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2400

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +72 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 54 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9392 or 2.4% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1418 or 7.1% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence), as mentioned here in the last issue, almost tested its key support levels of 200DMA and then rallied up. 50DMA, at 9757, is the next key level to watch for.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) sold off a tad lower than its 50DMA, and then, rallied hard to a new ATH by Thanksgiving. RISK is ON again.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2536 or 1.8% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2433 or 6.1% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

We now have SEVEN of our EIGHT DeTrenders in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday 11/22/17 CLOSE at 2597
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 64 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 3 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -0.3 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 9.67, at about its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

In the last two weeks, VIX has sold off pretty hard from it +4 sigma (like magic) and registered 8.5 on Friday. This shockwave is OVER. CBOE needs another product... BitCoin Futures anyone? LOL

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are in NEUTRAL zone -- no signal here.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator, after putting a number of divergences while SPX making new ATHs, in the last six months, is again fairly quiet here and should warrant our further close watch moving forward.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed at ~131, or about its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money thinks YES. And our very own, @Capt_Tiko, concurs. More Iced Tea? YES !!

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This timing indicator was fairly docile this holiday week and closed at -3.09. Equity markets are in short-term overbought zone.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 70.7 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Bravo to our favorite prop indicator. On the evening of Nov 15, it gave a buy signal at 22.4, we flipped from our shorts, and the rest as they say, is history. Currently, we are near a short-term overbought signal.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

Our Treasury Market has gone nowhere fast as evidenced by sideway action in YTMs. Once Don Grumpino's Tax Plan gets to the Senate for a vote, then this chart becomes worth watching.

Fari Hamzei

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