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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Friday, December 15, 2017, 1552ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

With SPX hitting on our first SPX profit target (for this week at ~2680) ahead of the details of GOP Tax Bill being revealed later on today, long after the futures are closed, we are going to go FLAT SPX today at the Close.

Have a great weekend, sire…

Fari Hamzei

Monday, December 11, 2017, 0940ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #220

Monday, December 11, 2017, 0935ET
Market Bias for Issue #220

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday DEC 1 at 2644.22
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Thursday NOV 30 at 2647.38


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2700
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2680
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2652
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2635


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday DEC 29 265 Call
SELL SHORT SPY Friday DEC 29 270 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, December 10, 2017, 1100ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #220


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2651.50 up +9.28 (up 1.53%) for the week ending on Friday, December 8, 2017, which closed at its +1.5 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2665.19 (reached on Monday, Dec 4, 2017)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2651.50 (reached on Friday, Dec 8, 2017)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2663 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2664
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2609 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2531
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2556 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2398

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +25.7 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 51.3 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Another week of Washington drama gave us some volatility but it was short lived. Bob Mueller is not done yet. Stay tuned.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9426 or 10.3% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1424 or 6.8% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) slowed down and did some back and fill. New ATHs ahead? we think so.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) sold off a tad but nothing to write home about. RISK is definitely still ON.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2567 or 2.9% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2454 or 7.7% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Once again, all of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday 11/22/17 CLOSE at 2597
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 110 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 2 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +3.2 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 9.58, at about its +1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern ( its sigma channels) that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO ). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

CBOE should be dusting its plans for her G0oFundMe page....(with VIX this low and if BitCoin fails - starts trading tonight on CFE).



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is in the NEUTRAL zone but its NASDAQ brethren is in SELL mode again.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator, after a very strong week, pulled back after hitting 80% and then closed the week at 78.20. We expect to see 85% soon.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed at ~132, or about its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money says YES.



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

Oh what a day this timing indicator had on Friday before closing at -3.4. Equity markets are still in short-term overbought zone.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 77.6 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

We saw a pretty strong rally in our favorite prop indicator, from 57 on Wednesday to over 77 by Friday. We are still in mildly overbought condition.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

This past week, again our Treasury Market went nowhere fast as evidenced by sideway action in YTMs.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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