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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, February 6, 2018, 1000ET
UPDATED Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #227

Tuesday, February 6, 2018, 0955ET
UPDATED Market Bias for Issue #227

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday JAN 26 at 2872.87
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Tuesday DEC 19 at 2681.47


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2740
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2720
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2614
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2595


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday FEB 23 266 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday FEB 23 274 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, February 5, 2018, 2115ET
Link for Tonight's Market Timing Webinar #59

Click here to Play

Thanks for attending,
Fari Hamzei

Monday, February 5, 2018, 1015ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #227

Monday, February 5, 2018, 1015ET
Market Bias for Issue #227

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday JAN 26 at 2872.87
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Tuesday DEC 19 at 2681.47


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2820
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2790
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2741
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2730


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday FEB 23 274 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday FEB 23 279 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, February 4, 2018, 2230ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #227


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2762.13 down -111.74 (down -3.88%) for the week ending on Friday, February 2, 2018, which closed about its -1 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2872.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2872.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2879 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2848
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2802 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2647
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2725 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2446

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -255 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 39.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Just when we thought it was safe, the sharks showed up, circling our positions..... truth to be told, we welcome the return of volatility and expect that both our equity and bond markets will finally begin to show a sense of normalcy. Of course, this transition shall be violent, specially for the uninitiated.

MOVING FORWARD: NYSE Down to Up Volume Ratio hit 13+ which we have not seen since Sept 2016 (about 7 weeks before Presidential Elections). We do not think this is the bottom rather a small speed bump in a form of dead cat bounce.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9745 or 9.7% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1460 or 6% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) took a huge dive this past week and stopped near its 50day MA .

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a similar sell off but overshot its 50day MA. RISKY assets are being repriced on-the-run.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2715 or 1.7% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2532 or 9.1% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

SEVEN of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 2/2/18 CLOSE at 2762
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 128 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 20 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its -1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -9 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 17.3, at about its +3 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

We saw another tumultuous week for VIX and most likely, since have not seen the completion of this shockwave, our thinking says that we have not seen the bottom yet.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are trading in NEUTRAL zone.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator reversed hard this past week and dropped to 76, in line with price. NO SIGNAL HERE.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed at ~126, or about its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money not returning our calls!!


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, now long Feb, short May VIX Futures again closed +0.35. Is the bottom in? well, may be but most likely, we should see a dead cat bounce and a retest.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 20.26 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This coveted timing indicator, having moved over 73 handle in just one week (have not seen this size move since Brexit) now says we are uber oversold.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

During this past week, the Treasury Curve sold off hard, specially after Jan NFP was out. Economy is on the mend and lenders want a tad more for their vig & our dear friend, Maury agrees.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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