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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, February 21, 2018, 1215ET
UPDATED Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #229

Wednesday, February 21, 2018, 1210ET
UPDATED Market Bias for Issue #229

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Tuesday FEB 20 at 2716.26
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of Friday JAN 26 at 2872.87


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2750
SPX BreakEven Stop for last 20% of our position = 2730
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2655
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2575


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday MAR 16 273 Puts
SELL SHORT SPY Friday MAR 16 268 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Put-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, February 20, 2018, 1524ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

We are seeing a dead cat bounce and we need to get short here for next week or two.

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, February 20, 2018, 1025ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #229

Tuesday, February 20, 2018, 1020ET
Market Bias for Issue #229

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday JAN 26 at 2872.87
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Tuesday DEC 19 at 2681.47


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2770
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2750
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2723
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2700


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday MAR 9 273 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday MAR 9 277 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, February 19, 2018, 2230ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #229


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2732.22 up +112.67 (up +4.3%) for the week ending on Friday, February 16, 2018, which closed about its zero sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2872.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2872.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2927 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2846
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2751 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2663
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2574 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2480

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +64 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 52.5 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)




Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9806 or 7.1% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1465 or 5.3% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a huge week and rallied close to its 50Day bar after having bounced off its 200Day MA the Friday before.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF, in like fashion, rallied hard from below its 200Dayt MA and rose to a tad above its 50Day MA. RISKY assets are coming back in vogue.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2732 or 0.3% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2546 or 7.3% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

SIX of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 2/16/18 CLOSE at 2732
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 24 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 8 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +3.2 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 19.5, at about its zero sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Bottom was in Feb 9th with lower high in spot VIX and we saw a strong contango in VX Futures.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are trading in SELL zone now.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator reversed up this past week and rallied hard from 55 to almost 71. NO SIGNAL HERE.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed at ~132, or about its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money is drinking more tea now, and reading more Rumi (much like our own @Capt_Tiko, after he covered his Short BitCoin Futures).


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, now long March, short June VIX Futures again closed +0.45. Is the bottom in? we still think that most likely, we are seeing a dead cat bounce and then a retest.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 62.92 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This coveted timing indicator is now in NEUTRAL zone.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

During this past week, our dear friends at Maury & Co, demanded more vig and the Treasury Curve sold off more, specially on the front-end of the Curve.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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