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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, March 5, 2018, 1005ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #231

Monday, March 5, 2018, 1000ET
Market Bias for Issue #231

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of Wednesday FEB 28 at 2713.83
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of Friday FEB 23 at 2747.30


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2720
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2681
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2645
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2610


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday MAR 23 268 Puts
SELL SHORT SPY Friday MAR 23 263 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Put-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, March 4, 2018, 2230ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #231


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2691.25 down -56.05 (down -2.04%) for the week ending on Friday, March 2, 2018, which closed just below its zero sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2873.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2873.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2791 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2850
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2697 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2680
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2603 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2510

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -13 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 48.4 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Worth noting: outside bar reversal in SPX WEEKLY Chart. we do not see those often.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9868 or 4.7% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1471 or 4.2% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had another tough week having sold off hard from its 50Day MA.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) had a slightly better week but also could not get over its 50Day MA. RISKY assets are still hanging in there but for how long?



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2736 or -1.6% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2561 or 5.1% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Only FIVE of our EIGHT DeTrenders ended up in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 2/16/18 CLOSE at 2732
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 44 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 24 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = -3.6 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 19.6, at about its -0.5 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Once again, the NYSE 5-day TRIN is in the BUY zone now.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator settled at near 63% after a sharp breakdown from Tuesday thru Thursday. The 55% level should be our next target for a retest failure.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed at ~127.5, or about its -0.5 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money says yes. Our beloved @Capt_Tiko is still in the bear camp....


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, now long March, short June VIX Futures again closed +1.17. Is the bottom in? we are still looking for the other shoe to drop.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 40.4 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

On Friday, this coveted timing indicator was trading at 28 (just above its oversold zone) but by end of the day, it rallied to 40+, most likely a tell for a further move down. We need to see a solid move below 25 to count on a good bounce.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Flight-to-Safety Trade is here.... but as our dear Maury reminded us: For How Long?

Fari Hamzei




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