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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, March 12, 2018, 1005ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #232

Monday, March 12, 2018, 1000ET
Market Bias for Issue #232

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday MAR 9 at 2786.57
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of Wednesday FEB 28 at 2713.83


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2875
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2835
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2790
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2745


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday APR 6 280 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday APR 6 286 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, March 11, 2018, 1814ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

On Friday, the NFP Report for February came in very strong…. We had positive revisions, higher participation rate & wage growth. Chart wise, SPX punched thru its MAX Q (50day MA). Also our Daily Timing Model went LONG at the Close.

Therefore, we shall throw in the towel and reverse up…….. We are LONG SPX now.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, March 11, 2018, 1745ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #232


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2786.57 up 95.32 (up + 3.54%) for the week ending on Friday, March 9, 2018, which closed just below its +2 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2872.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2872.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2792 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2860
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2714 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2691
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2636 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2522

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +148 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 54.1 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Another worth noting: after last week's outside bar reversal in SPX WEEKLY Chart, we have FOUR positive closes this week. we do not see those often.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9907 or 8.4% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1476 or 8.2% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had another excellent week, coming back with a roar having sold off hard during the prior week.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) went thru MAX Q (its 50-day MA and now poised to make new ATHs. RISKY is back ON.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2741 or 1.6% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2570 or 8.4% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Now, SEVEN of our EIGHT DeTrenders ended up in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 3/09/18 CLOSE at 2786
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 59 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 3 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +5.53 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 14.6, at about its zero sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRIN are in the NEUTRAL zone now.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator rallied hard from 62% to 70%. The 74%-75% level should be our next target for a retest failure.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed at ~127.8, or about its -1 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money says yes.


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, now long March, short June VIX Futures again closed -1. Is the bottom in? @Capt_Tiko says who knows.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 77.1 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This coveted prop indicator says we are about to enter overbought territory. Watch for possible retest failure in 80 to 85 area.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Flight-to-Safety Trade is over.... our dear friends at Maury & Co. are happy again. And, now, we ask: For How Long?

Fari Hamzei




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