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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

Weekly PMT Webinars on YouTube   PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, March 28, 2018, 2120ET
Link for Tonight's Market Timing Webinar #60

Click here to Play

Thanks for attending,
Fari Hamzei

Monday, March 26, 2018, 1005ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #233

Monday, March 26, 2018, 1000ET
Market Bias for Issue #233

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday MAR 23 at 2588.26
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of MAR 16 at 2752.01

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2715
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2665
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2619
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2600

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday APR 13 263 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday APR 13 270 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, March 25, 2018, 2303ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

The arrival of Spring (which coincides with Persian New Year) celebrates that magical time for renewal, personal growth, expansion & optimism.

Instead this past week, we saw the biggest weekly drop in NASDAQ since Aug 2015, with Dow dropping over 1400 points and SPX down almost 164 handles. We are glad we went short last Sunday and stayed short throughout the week.

While we think the storms over Washington aren’t over yet, our true-and-tested internals + prop indicators tell us to get LONG SPX here, albeit for a week or two till the other shoe drops.

Therefore we are going LONG SPX (last close = 2588)……

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, March 25, 2018, 1745ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #233

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2588.26 down 163.75 (down -5.95%) for the week ending on Friday, March 23, 2018, which closed at its -3 sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2872.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2872.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2792 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2860
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2714 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2691
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2636 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2522

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -193 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 37.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

WORTH NOTING: Down to Up Volume Ratios for both NYSE & NASDAQ spiked multiple times this week.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 9907 or 8.4% above DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1476 or 8.2% above RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had another excellent week, coming back with a roar having sold off hard during the prior week.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) went thru MAX Q (its 50-day MA and now poised to make new ATHs. RISKY is back ON.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2741 or 1.6% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2570 or 8.4% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Now, SEVEN of our EIGHT DeTrenders ended up in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 12/16/16 CLOSE at 2258
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday 3/09/18 CLOSE at 2786
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 59 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 3 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its +2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +5.53 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 14.6, at about its zero sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRIN are in the NEUTRAL zone now.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator rallied hard from 62% to 70%. The 74%-75% level should be our next target for a retest failure.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

Last week SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed at ~127.8, or about its -1 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money says yes.

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, now long March, short June VIX Futures again closed -1. Is the bottom in? @Capt_Tiko says who knows.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 77.1 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This coveted prop indicator says we are about to enter overbought territory. Watch for possible retest failure in 80 to 85 area.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The Flight-to-Safety Trade is over.... our dear friends at Maury & Co. are happy again. And, now, we ask: For How Long?

Fari Hamzei

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