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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Tuesday, May 1, 2018, 1030ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #238

Tuesday, May 1, 2018, 1025ET
Market Bias for Issue #238

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of Friday MAR 23 at 2588.26
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of MAR 16 at 2752.01


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2710
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2685
SPX BreakEven Stop (Last Open) for last 20% of our position = 2643
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2625


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday MAY 18 264 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday MAY 18 268 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, April 30, 2018, 2330ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #238


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2648.05 down -22.09.67 (down -0.83%) for the six trading days ending on Monday, April 30, 2018, which closed just below its zero sigma.

SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2872.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH = 2872.87 (reached on Friday, Jan 26, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2713 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2853
Current DAILY 0 Sigma (20 day MA) SPX = 2648 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2707
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2602 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2561

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -30 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 46.7 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Last Tuesday was a rough day for the LONGs. The rest of the days were tight range days till today. We need to see a close above 50day MA (2686) for us to get more excited about the upside.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,090 or 3.3% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1501 or 2.7% below RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) sold off a tad but mainly hovered around its 50day MA.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) also had a mixed week and closed below its 50day MA



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2686 or 1.4% above SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2612 or 1.4% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Only THREE of our EIGHT DeTrenders remain in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday 4/06/118 CLOSE at 2604
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Tuesday 4/25/18 CLOSE at 2639
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 22 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 22 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed at its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = -1.38 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

VIX currently stands at 15.93, just about its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Low Vols are back. The qustion is for how long?



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are in NEUTRAL zone.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator rallied to 62% on Wednesday and they got crushed and fell to 57% by Friday close. A breach below 55% this week is not good, and it's very bad below 50%. stay tuned sailors.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Monday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 131, or near its +1 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Smart Money says YES, for now!!


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, now long May, and short August VIX Futures near -0.80. Is the bottom in? Our beloved @Capt_Tiko still thinks YES.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 40.9 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

This coveted prop indicator put in a lower high this past week. This is of concern to us.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

Our beloved Maury, got a bit concern last week as we saw couple of sharo Flight-to-Quality days.

Fari Hamzei




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Chat with Fari on TradeStation.com Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
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