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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, August 15, 2018, 2216ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest


Dear Jim,

Given how the internals and a few key timing indicators reacted within the first 90-minutes of RTH today, we are now of the belief that, at least, for now, we may have seen a tradable short-term low.

Of course, only time will tell. And, any breach of 2800 by SPX will invalidate this assumption.

LONG SPX for next 3 trading sessions.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, August 13, 2018, 1015ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #253

Monday, August 13, 2018, 1010ET
Market Bias for Issue #253

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of AUG 9 at 2853.58
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of JUL 17 at 2809.55


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2850
SPX BreakEven Stop (Today's Open) for last 20% of our position = 2835
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2820
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2800


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday AUG 24 284 Puts
SELL SHORT SPY Friday AUG 24 280 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Put-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, August 12th, 2018, 2230ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #253


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2833 down -7 (down -0.25%) for the week ending on Friday, August 10, 2018, which closed about its +0.5 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26617 (reached on Friday, January 26, 2018)
TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11424 (reached on Tuesday, January 16, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2873 (reached on Friday, January 26, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7511 (reached on Wednesday, July 25, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1708 (reached on Tuesday, July 10, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2865 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2867
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2826 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2734
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2787 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2602

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -65 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode, over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 50.5 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

SPX had a decent run-up on Monday followed by three days of sausage ops and then a big whoosh down right after we changed our bias the evening before.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,530 or 5.3% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1580 or 6.7% below RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had a mixed week and after a huge intraday fall on Friday, ended up closing about unchanged for the week.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) pretty much tested and stayed above its 50-day MA. RISK is still ON but may put in lower highs here, so stay tuned.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2784 or 1.7% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2708 or 4.6% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

ALL of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, June 15, 2018 CLOSE at 2779
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Monday, August 6, 2018 CLOSE at 2850
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 30 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 10 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed just above its zero sigma channels
HA_Momo = -2.7 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX currently stands at 13.16, right about its +1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX hit 13.8 on Friday and is beginning to rotate up. Should SPX close lower on Monday, we think first hour of Tuesday is a must watch for VIX enthusiasts.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are beginning to head towards BUY zones.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator could not rise above 69% and ended down to 66% by the close of Friday. If 65 level is broken, then the next stop is 62-60 area.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 149.2, right about its +1 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Our beloved @Capt_Tiko says NO.


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, (long AUG, & short NOV VIX Futures) is at -1.98, closing in its NEUTRAL zone.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 42.3 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our coveted SP2 prop indicator rose to 78.1 on Tuesday and then dropped all the way down to 42.3 by Friday close. Next level to watch is 25.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

During this past week, the YTMs for the Notes & Bonds, had a very dull market till Friday morning when the Flight-To-Quality Trades showed up and YTMs gave back precious ground. No shopping on Rodeo Dr this weekend for our beloved Maury & Mrs. Maury.

Fari Hamzei




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