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Proactive Market Timing
 
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Admiral_Tiko

Editors: Capt. Stephanie Alexander & Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, October 10, 2018, 2230ET
UPDATED Market Timing Charts for Issue #261


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

We are fast approaching a "Launch Pad" Mode. Most likely it will come some time this week or early next week. Here is why: today we had a very high Down to Up Volume Ratio, a very low McClellan Oscillator reading, positive VX futures spread and very low SP2.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, June 15, 2018 CLOSE at 2779
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Thursday, October 4, 2018 CLOSE at 2901
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 16 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 48 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed at its -3 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -9 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



VX Futures and HA_SP2 Charts

Monday, October 8, 2018, 1015ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #261

Monday, October 8, 2018, 1010ET
Market Bias for Issue #261

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of SEP 28 at 2914
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of AUG 27 at 2897


            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2910
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2895
SPX BreakEven Stop (Today's Open) for last 20% of our position = 2877
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2870


Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday OCT 26 288 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday OCT 26 292 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, October 7, 2018, 1215ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #261


Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2886 down -28 (down -1%) for the week ending on Friday, October 5, 2018, which closed just below its zero sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2938 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2954
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2908 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2824
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2877 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2693

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -188 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 38.76 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Mid-week on, our US Markets sold off pretty hard on econ data (ADP, NFP) and ratcheting up of Treasury Notes & Bonds Yields. We closed the week in oversold area.



Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,811 or 3.7% below DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1618 or 0.8% below RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) moved lower on Tuesday and Friday.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) sold off hard down to its 200-day MA. Is RISK still on, we think this week will be a great arbiter.



DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2877 or 0.3% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2763 or 4.4% below SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

SIX of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.



HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, June 15, 2018 CLOSE at 2779
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Thursday, October 4, 2018 CLOSE at 2901
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 30 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 24 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed at its -1 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -5.6 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)



Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX currently stands at 14.8, right about its +2.5 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX & VXN both rallied hard to almost +5 sigma....now, it should pull back.



5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is in **uber** OverBought zone while TRINQ (for NASDAQ) is in the Neutral zone.... note: again, given all other indicators, we have never seen this configuration before.



Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator broke 64% this past week. Was the prior week a Bull Trap? YES. A breach of 62% is a very bad omen for this market. Only time will tell.



SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 130.3, a tad above its -3 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Our beloved @Capt_Tiko said YES....


How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)



3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, (long OCT18, & short JAN19 VIX Futures) closed at -0.89. This reading is in the BULLISH zone.



HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 22.3 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our coveted SP2 prop indicator has now entered its extreme OVERSOLD zone.



US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

This past week all YTMs rallied very hard making new 7-yr highs across the Yield Curve. The Maurys are very happy, indeed.

Fari Hamzei




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