Monday, October 15, 2018, 1145ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #262
Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)
Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2751 down -135 (down -4.7%) for the week ending on Monday, October 15, 2018, which closed just below its -2 sigma.
DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)
Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3006 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2949
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2880 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2827
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2751 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2704
NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -154 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 36.2 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)
Last week, US Markets sold off sharply, pushing us into, a potential "Launch Pad" mode.
Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices
200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,812 or 2.4% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1620 or 4.1% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)
DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had its toughest week since January.
Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) sold off hard way past its 200-day MA. RISK is OFF.
DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices
50-Day MA SPX = 2874 or 4.3% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2766 or 0.6% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)
Only ONE of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.
WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, June 15, 2018 CLOSE at 2779
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Thursday, October 4, 2018 CLOSE at 2901
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 16 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 60 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed at its -2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -7.4 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)
Vol of the Vols Chart
Spot VIX currently stands at 21.3, right about its +1.5 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).
VIX & VXN both rallied hard to +4 & +3 sigmas respectively before pulling back.
5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts
NYSE 5-day TRIN is nearing a BUY zone while TRINQ (for NASDAQ) is remaining in the SELL zone.
Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart
This scoring indicator fell off the cliff all the way down to 41% this past week.
SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart
On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 128.3, a tad above its -2 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).
Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Our beloved @Capt_Tiko says MAYBE....
How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)
3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart
This popular timing indicator, (long NOV18, & short FEB19 VIX Futures) closed at +0.15. Last Thursday and Friday, this indicator gave BULLISH signals as it approached +1 readings.
HA_SP2 = 23 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)
Our coveted SP2 prop indicator has spent in OVERSOLD zone since October 5.
US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart
This past week all YTMs pulled back somewhat after Grumpino aka "Stable Genius" blamed the "Crazy Fed" for the market rout. ROFLOL.