Investment Advice via real time put call ratio real time investment advice
Contact Us Home Products News About Members
Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

Weekly PMT Webinars on YouTube   PMT Archives   Current PMT Issue

Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Wednesday, October 17, 2018, 2316ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

Given today’s market action (absent of upward momentum after a week of uber oversold conditions), we have elected to go SHORT SPX for about 2 to 3 weeks.
Please confirm…..

Fari Hamzei

Tuesday, October 16, 2018, 1115ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #262

Tuesday, October 16, 2018, 1110ET
Market Bias for Issue #262

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of SEP 28 at 2914
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of AUG 27 at 2897

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2830
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2810
SPX BreakEven Stop (Today's Open) for last 20% of our position = 2767
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2750

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday NOV 2 278 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday NOV 2 283 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, October 15, 2018, 1145ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #262

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2751 down -135 (down -4.7%) for the week ending on Monday, October 15, 2018, which closed just below its -2 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 3006 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2949
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2880 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2827
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2751 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2704

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = -154 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 36.2 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Last week, US Markets sold off sharply, pushing us into, a potential "Launch Pad" mode.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,812 or 2.4% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1620 or 4.1% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) had its toughest week since January.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) sold off hard way past its 200-day MA. RISK is OFF.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2874 or 4.3% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2766 or 0.6% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

Only ONE of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, June 15, 2018 CLOSE at 2779
DAILY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Thursday, October 4, 2018 CLOSE at 2901
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 16 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 60 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed at its -2 sigma channels
HA_Momo = -7.4 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX currently stands at 21.3, right about its +1.5 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX & VXN both rallied hard to +4 & +3 sigmas respectively before pulling back.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

NYSE 5-day TRIN is nearing a BUY zone while TRINQ (for NASDAQ) is remaining in the SELL zone.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator fell off the cliff all the way down to 41% this past week.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 128.3, a tad above its -2 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Our beloved @Capt_Tiko says MAYBE....

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, (long NOV18, & short FEB19 VIX Futures) closed at +0.15. Last Thursday and Friday, this indicator gave BULLISH signals as it approached +1 readings.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 23 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our coveted SP2 prop indicator has spent in OVERSOLD zone since October 5.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

This past week all YTMs pulled back somewhat after Grumpino aka "Stable Genius" blamed the "Crazy Fed" for the market rout. ROFLOL.

Fari Hamzei

Customer Care:

Chat with Fari on Fari Hamzei writes for CBOE Options Hub on event-deriven basis       Futures & Options for Stock Indices
HA YouTube Channel  :::  HA Blog  :::  Testimonials  :::  Tutorials & FAQs  :::  Privacy Policy
(c) 1998-2024, Hamzei Analytics, LLC.   All Rights Reserved.