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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Monday, November 12, 2018, 1010ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #266

Monday, November 12, 2018, 1010ET
Market Bias for Issue #266

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is SHORT SPX as of OCT 25 at 2705
Our previous Market Bias was LONG SPX as of OCT 23 at 2740

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2775
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2757
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2710
SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2690

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday NOV 23 274 Puts
SELL SHORT SPY Friday NOV 23 268 Puts
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Put-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, November 12, 2018, 0730ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #266

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2781 up +58 (up +2.1%) for the week ending on Friday, November 9, 2018, which closed just about its +0.5 sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2843 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 2964
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2741 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2820
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2638 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2676

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +114 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 58.4 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

By early Wednesday, it was clear that Goldilocks will be our political system for at least 2 years and markets rallied hard - by Friday we also found out there will be more political storms ahead and our markets sold off hard. More Tea for everyone? Capt Tiko signed a Decree while telling everyone of his 1,200+ Followers YES.

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,742 or 2.1% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1616 or 4.1% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) could not get passed its 200-day MA [for second time in four weeks], while its 50-day MA is getting closer to cross its 200-day MA ("death cross"). Should that occur w/o a quick rebound, we should see more selling thus its name.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) is also heading fast to its "death cross". RISK is struggling to make a comeback. Stay tuned....

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2829 or 1.7% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2763 or 0.7% BELOW SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

For the second week in the row, NONE of our EIGHT DeTrenders are in POSITIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Friday, June 15, 2018 CLOSE at 2779
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Monday, November 5, 2018 CLOSE at 2738
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = 13 (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = 65 (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed at its +1.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +5.4 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX currently stands at 17.8, right about its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

VIX & VXN both pulled back hard this past week.

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE 5-day TRIN & NASDAQ 5-day TRINQ are in the NEUTRAL zone.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator rallied to 50% area after crossing its 20-day MA at 45% area.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 120, still about its -2 sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

Is all quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts? Our beloved @Capt_Tiko still says MAYBE....

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, (long NOV18, & short FEB19 VIX Futures) closed at -0.65 which is a tad NEUTRAL.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 53 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our coveted SP2 prop indicator rallied from 77 and then settled at 59 on Friday. This is a slight overbought reading.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

On Friday, the five & ten year YTMs rallied to new 7 yr highs. Mr & Mrs Maury remain jubilant.......

Fari Hamzei

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