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Proactive Market Timing
Proactive Market Timing Service

Market Timer: Fari Hamzei

Executive Officer: @Fleet_Adm_Tiko

Editors: Nancy Scott

Here is the most recent How the PMT Market Bias Service Works Video

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Most Recent PMT vs SPX Performance Chart

Thursday, January 10, 2019, 2247ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

Seems like the financial world has finally figured out what we have been writing about for last 60+ days that “trade wars, China’s slow down and erratic stock market" will manifest in "a grimmer outlook for increasing number of companies across globe” as Bloomberg put it late this afternoon.

GETTING SHORT SPX now now now…………….

Fari Hamzei

Wednesday, January 9, 2019, 1554ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

McClellan Oscillators are very high (> +300 for both NYSE & NASDAQ Markets).

We are going FLAT SPX at the Close today.

Fari Hamzei

Monday, January 7, 2019, 1005ET
Companion Chart for Market Bias Review, Issue #274

Monday, January 7, 2018, 1000ET
Market Bias for Issue #274

Our current Market Bias with Timer Digest is LONG SPX as of JAN 4 at 2532
Our previous Market Bias was SHORT SPX as of DEC 31 at 2506

            Here are the trade parameters for this week:

SPX Secondary Profit Target for last 20% of our position = 2600
SPX Primary Profit Target for first 80% of our position = 2580
SPX BreakEven Stop (Current Price) for last 20% of our position = 2533
SPX Money Management Stop for 100% of our position = 2510

Action Asset Expiration Strike Option
BUY SPY Friday JAN 18 253 Calls
SELL SHORT SPY Friday JAN 18 258 Calls
You need to execute both legs and hold it as a Call-Spread.

Note A: Once the Primary Profit Target has been reached, traders are advised to close 80% of their position in order to lock in profits. The remaining balance can be carried over with a BreakEven STOP, based on the SPX level at the time of entry, in order to make the trade a zero-risk trade with the final position running to reach the Secondary Profit Target. Once either Secondary Profit or Money Management (BreakEven STOP after the 80% peel-off) is hit, our Option/ETF trade for that week is over. Go to Cash and wait for the next PMT Issue.

Note B: When we change our Market Bias with Timer Digest, You need to go FLAT asap. With PMT Pro, that is before the Close that day and with the basic PMT, at the open of the next day. The following trading day, we will issue new SPX targets and a new SPY options trade, as long our new market bias with Timer Digest is NOT flat.

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, January 6, 2019, 2028ET
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest

Dear Jim,

While we do believe our markets, most likely, misjudged Fed Chair Jay Powell’s flexible (yet data dependant) comments & rallied hard in light of very strong DEC NFP and two large upward revisions for NOV & OCT, for now, we need to be long before the next big leg down.

LONG SPX as of 2532…… Cheers

Fari Hamzei

Sunday, January 6, 2019, 1415ET
Market Timing Charts, Analysis & Commentary for Issue #274

Timer Charts of S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) + NASDAQ-100 Cash Index (NDX)

Most recent S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX): 2532 up +22 (up +0.87%) for the three trading days ending on Friday, January 4, 2019, which closed about its zero sigma.

DJIA ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 26951 (reached on Wednesday, October 3, 2018)
DJ TRAN ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 11623 (reached on Friday, September 14, 2018)
SPX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 2941 (reached on Friday, September 21, 2018)
NDX ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 7700 (reached on Thursday, October 1, 2018)
RUT ALL TIME INTRADAY HIGH = 1742 (reached on Friday, August 31, 2018)

Current DAILY +2 Sigma SPX = 2717 with WEEKLY +2 Sigma = 3036
Current DAILY 0 Sigma SPX = 2539 with WEEKLY 0 Sigma = 2739
Current DAILY -2 Sigma SPX = 2361 with WEEKLY -2 Sigma = 2442

NYSE McClellan Oscillator = +208 (-150 is start of the O/S area; around -275 to -300 area or lower, we go into the “launch-pad” mode; over +150, we are in O/B area)
NYSE Breadth Thrust = 54.2 (40 is considered as oversold and 65 as overbought)

Last Friday DEC NFP came in strong (+312K) & both NOV and OCT NFPs were revised up. Initially, this firmed up FED hand for 2019, and thus, futures sold off a tad from a decent overnight run-up, in the heels of AAPL warning the day before. But what reversed up the index market & fueled the strong run into 1300ET was the open discussion of current and last two Fed Chairs, which further confirmed the independence of Fed from short-term political jawbonings from both ends of Penn Ave in Washington + the reassuring by Chairman Powell, that FOMC will stay flexible and data dependant in 2019. Then, the animal spirits kicked in and SPX ended up at its 20-day MA (zero sig).

Canaries [in the Coal Mine] Chart for DJ TRAN & RUT Indices

200-Day MA DJ TRAN = 10,622 or 13.2% ABOVE DJ TRAN (max observed in last 7 yrs = 20.2%, min = -20.3%)
200-Day MA RUT = 1596 or 13.5% ABOVE RUT (max observed in last 7 yrs = 21.3%, min = -22.6%)

DJ Transportation Index (proxy for economic conditions 6 to 9 months hence) by end of the week, went nowhere fast.

Russell 2000 Small Caps Index (proxy for Risk ON/OFF) improved a tad but RISK is still OFF for now.

DeTrenders Charts for SPX, NDX, TRAN & RUT Indices

50-Day MA SPX = 2645 or 4.3% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = +8.6%, min = -9.3%)
200-Day MA SPX = 2742 or 7.7% ABOVE SPX (max observed in last 7 yrs = 15.2%, min = -14%)

All EIGHT out of EIGHT of our DeTrenders remain in the NEGATIVE territory. The DeTrenders for DJ Tran & RUT will continue to be harbingers of future price behavior in broad indices.

HA_SP1_Momo Chart

WEEKLY Timing Model = on a SELL Signal since Friday, November 16, 2018 CLOSE at 2736
DAILY Timing Model = on a BUY Signal since Wednesday, January 2, 2019 CLOSE at 2510
Max SPX 52wk-highs reading last week = N/A (over 120-140, the local maxima is in)
Max SPX 52wk-Lows reading last week = N/A (over 40-60, the local minima is in)
HA_SP1 closed near its -0.5 sigma channels
HA_Momo = +2.8 (reversals most likely occur above +10 or below -10)

Vol of the Vols Chart

Spot VIX currently stands at 21.4, at about its -1 sigma (remember it's the VIX volatility pattern aka "its sigma channels" that matters, and not the level of VIX itself (this is per Dr. Robert Whaley, a great mentor and inventor of original VIX, now called VXO). VIX usually peaks around a test of its +4 sigma).

Pretty decent moves in VIX and its futures on Wednesday and Friday (and surprising docile on Thursday).

5-day TRIN & TRINQ Charts

Both NYSE & NASDAQ 5-day TRINs are now in NEUTRAL zones.

Components of SPX above their respective 200day MA Chart

This scoring indicator rallied to 21.6% area. This index is still hanging out in the OVERSOLD territory for now.

SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) Chart

On Friday, SPX SKEW (Tail Risk) closed near 111.4, still about its zero sigma (normal = 120-125, range 100-150).

All quiet on the Eastern & Mid-Western Fronts, again? YES, our beloved @Capt_Tiko thinks so.....

How to interpret the value of SPX SKEW? (from CBOE white paper on SKEW)

3-month VIX Futures Spread(VX) Chart

This popular timing indicator, (long JAN19, & short APR19 VIX Futures) closed at +1.5 which says SPX is still OVERSOLD.

HA_SP2 Chart

HA_SP2 = 59.7 (Buy signal <= 25, Sell Signal >= 75)

Our coveted SP2 prop indicator is now hovering slightly ABOVE the NEUTRAL zone.

US Treasury T-Notes & T-Bonds Yields Chart

The YTMs sank hard on Thursday and then rose a tad on Friday. Maury is still very upset as he hates adjusting his vig downward (much like gas stations when crude oil drops)!!!

Fari Hamzei

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